What Happens if the Mandate is Struck Down?

Writing in the American Prospect, Paul Starr offers three possibilities as to what would happen were the Supreme Court to strike down Obamacare as unconstitutional. Reading the article made me laugh. Starr only considers three possibilities: fixing the madate to make it constitutional, adopting Medicare for all, or having the states adopt programs that mirror Obamacare. As they say in Britain, "not bloody likely."

Let's look at this without all the fantasy thrown in. Poll after poll has shown that the public do not like Obamacare. There is no way that Congress (likely in GOP hands) is going to adopt the essence of Obamacare for a second time in the face of public opposition. To do so would be prrof that the Obamacrats have a death wish.

A single payer public system like Medicare for all is also well beyond the reach of even the most progressive Congress. The Obamacrats would need to again have 60 votes in the Senate and that is unlikely for at least the next five years. So let's not waste time talking about this.

Of course, there could be systems adopted in certain liberal states that mirror Obamacare, but these are likely to self-regulate out of existence. Passage of such systems will drive medical costs up further for residents of those states and thereby drive people and jobs to other states. It will not take too long before the "progressive" states have to throw in the towel or face economic ruin. Indeed, if the next Congress manages to do away with the deduction for state taxes (which is nothing but a national subsidy for high tax states), the day of reckoning for the high tax states will be on our doorstep.