The weekly report on new claims for unemployment came in this morning at 386,000 and the number for the week before was revised upwards from 380,000 to 388,000. This is not good news. It had seemed for a while that this number had gotten down to the range of 350,000 to 355,000. That lower figure is consistent with real job growth sufficient to lower the total number of unemployed. Now, with the number trending back towards the 400,000 that was consistently in place for about eight months at the end of last year, one has to wonder if job creation is slowing further from March's rather anemic growth figure.
These weekly figures are subject to large fluctuations, of that there can be no doubt. Accordingly, one or two weeks' worth of results are far from a trend. They can, however, be a warning of things to come. When these two weeks are added to the poor job growth of March, these reports can be viewed as a serious warning. The economy may be slowing.
Of course, these bad numbers arise now that the price of gasoline is back at sky high levels. Although there are many who have all sorts of explanations why high gasoline prices will not have a big effect on the economy, I do not buy those. We will have to wait to see what the next few weeks bring. I, for one, am worried.
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