There is a poll out today from Quinnipiac on the upcoming senatorial election in New Jersey between incumbent Democrat Menendez and Republican Kyrillos. The poll of registered voters shows Menendez leading by 44 to 35. This is the third poll of registered voters in New Jersey in the last two months. Each has show essentially the same numbers. To say the least, these results are surprising.
Bob Menendez has been in office long enough that voters in the Garden State know him and know his political views (at least as well as any group of voters ever know that.) Normally, in a very blue state like New Jersey, a Democrat incumbent like Menendez would be a certainty for re-election. The various political prognosticators all has the race as a sure Democrat win at the start of the year, but some have now moved it one notch towards competitive and label it likely Democrat. So, even now, Menendez is still viewed essentially as a lock among political class.
The polls, however, are showing something far different. For an incumbent with a virtually unknown opponent to run at only 45% in the spring before the election is a very bad sign. What it means is this: if the GOP candidate can run a decent campaign without many mistakes, he may be able to beat the Democrat. Many folks in New Jersey apparently do not like Manendez.
Obviously, we are at an early stage of this race. No one can tell from these polls what will happen. It is surprising, nevertheless, that the Democrat is doing so poorly in New Jersey of all places. I guess if Scott Brown could win in Massachusetts, then anything is possible.
2 comments:
Jeff,
With this poll, do you think Chris Christie might bring New Jersey to Romney if he is the V.P. nominee? Yesterday there was a very favorable Christie poll on his favorability in N.J. I believe he was at 59%.
The same Quinnipiac poll showed the Obama-Romney race in New Jersey to be 49 to 40% for Obama. This was enough for Real Clear Politics to move New Jersey from sure Democrat to leans Democrat in the election. It is way too early to tell if New Jersey will actually be in play in the fall. If it is, my guess is that Obama will lose big. Having Christie on the ticket would surely help Romney in New Jersey, but I doubt it would be enough. There are other states and other veep candidates who can probably bring states that are more important. Marco Rubio and Florida or Paul Ryan and Wisconsin come to mind.
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