At 6:00 P.M., Fox News released its latest poll of the presidential matchup between Romney and Obama. Like all other polls taken six months before the election, this one is just a snapshot that can change quickly. Unlike many of the other polls, however, the Fox News poll gives out all of the internals of the polling process. In other words, Fox News gives out all the detailed breakdowns of the people polled.
The internals are fascinating. Overall, Romney is ahead of Obama 46 to 44, a lead which is within the margin of error. The interesting thing, however, is that among Democrats, 11% choose Romney over Obama and among Republicans only 5% choose Obama over Romney. While this may not sound like much, it provides the entire margin for Romney's lead in the race. Further, only 5% of Democrats polled said that they would vote for a third party, were unsure or would not vote, while 10% of Republicans polled gave those answers. In other words, there is a much larger group of Republicans who have not yet chosen one of the two candidates than there are Democrats. This means that the likelihood is strong that the bulk of the undecided or middle group will swing towards Romney. Romney also holds a 4% lead among independents.
Obviously, this poll means nothing as to the identity of the next president. It should, however, confirm one important point. For the last three months, the GOP candidates have been slamming each other while Obama took shots at the Republicans with little in the way of an answer being offered. Despite this relentless pounding, Romney is still ahead and the numbers for the undecideds favor him over Obama. It would seem that the Buffett rule and the War on Women have been seen by the public for the unconvincing ruses that they really are.
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