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Thursday, March 27, 2014

2.6% Is Supposed To Be Good -- But It Isn't

The latest revision to the GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2013 is out.  We are now told that the economy grew during that quarter at a rate of 2.6%, a figure which was slightly below expectations.

The media focus on expectations is another of those meaningless exercises which seem intended to distract people from the actual reality of what is happening.  The truth is that during October through December of 2013, we now know that the economy of the USA grew by less than 0.7% over the previous quarter.  That is a terrible number.  America has supposedly been in an economic recovery since 20009, but we have yet to have even one quarter where there was robust growth.  That is more than four years without any strong growth, indeed without any growth other than these feeble rates like the one just announced.  It is this lack of growth which has kept the economy from creating sufficient jobs to get employment for the long term unemployed and the millions of discouraged workers who have either given up looking or stayed in jobs they do not like or want since there is no alternative.  We have been watching the long term strangulation of the American dream with folks stuck in jobs with little hope of advancement or even enjoyment at their place of work.

The terrible thing about this devastatingly slow so-called "growth" is that it does not have to be like this.  There are literally dozens of steps that could be taken by the federal government which would speed up economic growth right now.  Some of these could be done at no cost to the government; indeed, some would result in a substantial increase in tax revenues.  That means that the refusal of the president to take these steps is not, NOT the result of gridlock in Congress.  The problem, however, is that there are political constituencies in the Democrat party that find some of the clear remedies to slow growth unacceptable, so president Obama does not do what is good for the country but sticks to what pleases these pressure groups.  For example, it has been estimated that were the federal government to encourage oil and gas production instead of its present anti-growth stance, the growth of the entire economy would be about 1% faster each year.  In other words, just this change would raise the 2.6% growth rate to 3.6%.  Obama, however, does not make that switch in policy because it would upset the environmentalists.  Changing America's corporate tax structure so as to allow foreign profits to be brought back to the USA without high taxes has been estimated to have the potential to increase growth by 3-4% per year for first two years and simultaneously to increase tax revenues for the federal government by about $200 billion.  That change alone could more than double our economic growth rate and reduce the federal budget deficit by 30%, but Obama will not consider it because too many on the far left cannot accept something that would be seen as helping corporations.

Our president is a prisoner of pressure groups.  Wouldn't it be wonderful is just once before he leaves office Obama were to actually do something for the good of the nation rather than just to satisfy the pressure groups in the Democrat party?




 

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