Watching the Ukrainian situation unfold, I find it amazing just how much delusional thinking is being pushed in the mainstream media. The New York Times is announcing in its weekend editions that Russia has already "lost" the Ukrainian situation. According to the Times, the Russian invasion of Crimea has united the remainder of Ukraine in opposition to Moscow, something that was unthinkable the day prior to the start of the Russian incursion. Meanwhile, the Washington Post is telling its readers that president Obama's "strategy" is to give Putin and the Russians a way out of the situation because what Putin really wants is international recognition and integration even more than control of Ukrainian territory. As the rest of the world pulls back in its relations with Moscow (or so the theory goes), Putin will be so eager to regain world approval, that he will pull the Russian troops out of Crimea.
The views being expressed in the two most influential liberal newspapers in America can only be described as delusional. The first goal of the Russians was and remains total control of Crimea which was part of Russia for some three hundred years until the mid 1950s. This goal has been achieved by Putin's forces even if the conquest has not been recognized by all the world governments. It will not be rolled back. Indeed, if Putin actually cares about world approval of his regime, he need only look at recent history to draw the lesson that he will soon regain that approval. In 2008, Russian troops invaded its neighbor Georgia and took control of two provinces where Russians constituted a major portion of the population. There was outrage in many quarters around the world and there were even sanctions imposed on Russia. In less of a year, however, those sanctions were gone and relations were back to normal. Indeed, the famous "reset" of the Russian American relationship put in place by president Obama when he took office was actually Obama lifting the sanctions imposed by America just months earlier when the invasion of Georgia took place. Putin has to assume that the likelihood of long term sanctions against his regime by other countries is extremely low.
And what of the unification of the remainder of Ukraine? That may be something that has happened today, although there is no proof to support that conclusion. The Russians of the eastern half of Ukraine may view themselves now as Ukrainians or they may wish to rejoin their brethren in Russia. We just do not know. Further, with the inevitable removal of Crimea from Ukraine, the balance of power has swung strongly towards the ethnic Ukrainians in the western portion of the country. Putin knows this, and he also knows that in a year or so there will likely be dissatisfaction with the Kiev government which will be viewed as favoring the Ukrainians. Indeed, if this is not the popular perception at first, Putin's agents can easily stir up that feeling among the Russian populace in the eastern half of the country.
The truth is that the events in Ukraine have been clear proof of the re-emergence of a nationalistic, aggressive and expansionist Russian state. That is not good news for Ukraine. It is not good news for the world. Indeed, it is not even good news for Russia. It is, however, a demonstrable fact. Wishing it not to be so is not an acceptable policy to follow. Reality has to begin to make an appearance in the media.
The views being expressed in the two most influential liberal newspapers in America can only be described as delusional. The first goal of the Russians was and remains total control of Crimea which was part of Russia for some three hundred years until the mid 1950s. This goal has been achieved by Putin's forces even if the conquest has not been recognized by all the world governments. It will not be rolled back. Indeed, if Putin actually cares about world approval of his regime, he need only look at recent history to draw the lesson that he will soon regain that approval. In 2008, Russian troops invaded its neighbor Georgia and took control of two provinces where Russians constituted a major portion of the population. There was outrage in many quarters around the world and there were even sanctions imposed on Russia. In less of a year, however, those sanctions were gone and relations were back to normal. Indeed, the famous "reset" of the Russian American relationship put in place by president Obama when he took office was actually Obama lifting the sanctions imposed by America just months earlier when the invasion of Georgia took place. Putin has to assume that the likelihood of long term sanctions against his regime by other countries is extremely low.
And what of the unification of the remainder of Ukraine? That may be something that has happened today, although there is no proof to support that conclusion. The Russians of the eastern half of Ukraine may view themselves now as Ukrainians or they may wish to rejoin their brethren in Russia. We just do not know. Further, with the inevitable removal of Crimea from Ukraine, the balance of power has swung strongly towards the ethnic Ukrainians in the western portion of the country. Putin knows this, and he also knows that in a year or so there will likely be dissatisfaction with the Kiev government which will be viewed as favoring the Ukrainians. Indeed, if this is not the popular perception at first, Putin's agents can easily stir up that feeling among the Russian populace in the eastern half of the country.
The truth is that the events in Ukraine have been clear proof of the re-emergence of a nationalistic, aggressive and expansionist Russian state. That is not good news for Ukraine. It is not good news for the world. Indeed, it is not even good news for Russia. It is, however, a demonstrable fact. Wishing it not to be so is not an acceptable policy to follow. Reality has to begin to make an appearance in the media.
No comments:
Post a Comment