Jolly Wins a Big One

Republican David Jolly won the special election yesterday and is now the congressman from Pinellas County Florida.  It was quite a surprise since the conventional wisdom was that Democrat Alex Sink was ahead in the race.  The district has leaned Democrat in recent elections.  President Obama carried it in both 2008 and 2012.  It also voted Democrat in statewide elections in recent years.  The congressman was a twenty term Republican, however, who kept getting re-elected due to his immense local popularity.  On top of the Democrat lean in the district, the national party went all out to support its candidate.  The Democrats outspent the Republicans by more than three to one in the race.  They brought in Bill Clinton and Joe Biden to campaign in the race.  There was a major get out the vote push run by union workers supporting the Democrat.  Nevertheless, she lost in a close election. 

The deciding factor in the race was Obamacare.  The Democrat supported Obamacare but said that it needed to be fixed.  The Republican called for getting rid of the law and starting over.  More than any other issue, Obamacare was the subject of speeches, pamphlets, and ads.  The main point of the Republicans against the Democrat was that she supported Obamacare and the intrusive federal government that the law stands for.

There is no way to know now if these results mean anything for November.  Many special elections indicate nothing regarding the next general election since the turnout is usually so much reduced.  One thing that we do know, however:  Obamacare is going to be quite a heavy weight for the Democrats to try to carry next fall.  They forced it on all of us, and now, hopefully, it will force them out of office.