The president of the Ukraine gave the Russians who stormed the Ukrainian naval base in Crimea and took captive the Ukrainian navy forces there (including the commander of the Ukrainian navy) just three hours to release those men. According to the Ukrainian president, should the naval forces not be released, there will be an appropriate reponse.
Is this the start of actual armed conflict between the Ukraine and Russia? It well could be. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if the Russians back down and have the prisoners released. My guess is that Putin will be loathe to be seen giving in to the Ukrainians. Most likely, Putin will just sit with the Russians holding the Ukrainian naval commander and basically dare the Ukrainian forces to react. In any battles, the Ukrainians are likely to lose to the better equipped and trained Russians. Nevertheless, just by fighting, the Ukrainians may win the war if they can survive the battle. The likelihood of support from NATO rises exponentially if there are actually Russians shooting at and killing members of the Ukrainian military forces. And it is support from NATO that could stop this battle from getting worse.
Is this the start of actual armed conflict between the Ukraine and Russia? It well could be. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if the Russians back down and have the prisoners released. My guess is that Putin will be loathe to be seen giving in to the Ukrainians. Most likely, Putin will just sit with the Russians holding the Ukrainian naval commander and basically dare the Ukrainian forces to react. In any battles, the Ukrainians are likely to lose to the better equipped and trained Russians. Nevertheless, just by fighting, the Ukrainians may win the war if they can survive the battle. The likelihood of support from NATO rises exponentially if there are actually Russians shooting at and killing members of the Ukrainian military forces. And it is support from NATO that could stop this battle from getting worse.
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