Recent polls of the American public make clear that there is no support for any military action by the USA in connection with the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea. Russia has taken control of this province of Ukraine and nothing seems likely to change that situation. Crimea is a peninsula on the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. It is home to a few million people, about half of whom are ethnic Russians. The Ukrainian government understands that it is beaten; it is making plans to withdraw its remaining forces from the province and is unlikely to take any action provided the Russians do not try to go further into the country.
So the question of the moment is a simple one: does this matter to America and the world? Should Washington or NATO take any steps to try to prevent further Russians moves or to roll back the takeover of Crimea? The answer to the question is an equally simply one: YES. Here's why:
1. For the last twenty years, Europe has had no major expansionist power. That is something that is very important. Remember that it was expansionist European nations that brought us World War I, World War II and the Cold War. That's means that more than half of the last 100 years were taken up by hot and cold global conflicts whose root causes were expansionist European powers. Such European powers are by no means the only possible cause of global conflict. Nevertheless, given recent history, keeping Europe free of such nations is a goal towards which any reasonable country should strive.
2. At the end of the Cold War, the old Soviet Union collapsed and broke into 13 different countries. Russia is the most important of the old soviet nations, and Ukraine is the second most important. Russia, by itself, however, just does not have the capability to mount a serious and sustained threat to European or world peace. Don't get me wrong. Russia has an immense nuclear arsenal which it inherited from the USSR. If Russia decides to launch a war of global annihilation, it could easily do so, but that is extremely unlikely. What Russia could not do is to take on the rest of Europe or the United States in a sustained war. The Russians know this, and it limits their actions in many ways.
3. One of the principles that has been in place since the end of the Cold War has been that the borders of nations should not be changed by means of armed conflict. Indeed, this principle is so widely accepted that the Russian invasion of Crimea had to be disguised by means of a rigged election in which the Crimeans "selected" union with Russia. Nevertheless, the Crimean invasion is basically the death of this principle.
4. Russia has used the presence of ethnic Russians as the reason for its entry into Crimea. There are, however, millions of ethnic Russians in the rest of Ukraine as well as in the Baltic States, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and most of the other nations that used to form part of the USSR. By the same token, there are other ethnic groups that have members spread into other countries across Europe. The idea that the presence of an ethnic group should justify an invasion is anathema to peace and order on that continent.
5. The combination of Russia and Ukraine would give the resulting nation a much bigger power base than the Russians currently have. Ukraine is the most fertile region of the old USSR. It has nearly 50 million people. With Ukraine, Russia becomes a formidable power.
Put all this together and the conclusion is obvious. It is important that the Russians not be allowed to bring themselves back to the point where they could become a sustained threat to peace in Europe. Further, it is in the interests of the entire world to keep the concept that borders ought not be changed due to armed conflict. The USA and the rest of the world needs to act to make it clear to Russia that it will pay a heavy price for its invasion of Crimea.
But you say that the American people don't care, so why should our politicians bother with this subject? The simple truth is that Americans don't care about Ukraine because they do not understand why they ought to care. President Obama who gives speech after speech throughout the year has chosen not to address the need for action regarding Ukraine and Crimea. Oh, he has discussed discrete points about Crimea, but he has never given a full explanation to the American people why this is a subject that matters to us. The truth is that Obama does not care about it, and he sees no reason to get America interested in the subject. Obama's goal has been to do as little as possible in connection with the Russian invasion, so he is keeping his mouth shut on the topic.
Some of you may recall what happened when Iraq conquered Kuwait in the early 1990s. Most Americans had no idea where Kuwait was located, and they certainly did not want to get involved with that matter. The first president Bush, however, understood the strategic importance of Kuwait and the disaster that Iraqi control of that country would be for the USA. He rallied both domestic and world opinion against the Iraqi invasion. The result was a coalition that invaded Kuwait and ousted the Iraqis in the Gulf War. President Bush led on the subject. Unfortunately for us all, right now president Obama is hiding. It is a grave mistake.
So the question of the moment is a simple one: does this matter to America and the world? Should Washington or NATO take any steps to try to prevent further Russians moves or to roll back the takeover of Crimea? The answer to the question is an equally simply one: YES. Here's why:
1. For the last twenty years, Europe has had no major expansionist power. That is something that is very important. Remember that it was expansionist European nations that brought us World War I, World War II and the Cold War. That's means that more than half of the last 100 years were taken up by hot and cold global conflicts whose root causes were expansionist European powers. Such European powers are by no means the only possible cause of global conflict. Nevertheless, given recent history, keeping Europe free of such nations is a goal towards which any reasonable country should strive.
2. At the end of the Cold War, the old Soviet Union collapsed and broke into 13 different countries. Russia is the most important of the old soviet nations, and Ukraine is the second most important. Russia, by itself, however, just does not have the capability to mount a serious and sustained threat to European or world peace. Don't get me wrong. Russia has an immense nuclear arsenal which it inherited from the USSR. If Russia decides to launch a war of global annihilation, it could easily do so, but that is extremely unlikely. What Russia could not do is to take on the rest of Europe or the United States in a sustained war. The Russians know this, and it limits their actions in many ways.
3. One of the principles that has been in place since the end of the Cold War has been that the borders of nations should not be changed by means of armed conflict. Indeed, this principle is so widely accepted that the Russian invasion of Crimea had to be disguised by means of a rigged election in which the Crimeans "selected" union with Russia. Nevertheless, the Crimean invasion is basically the death of this principle.
4. Russia has used the presence of ethnic Russians as the reason for its entry into Crimea. There are, however, millions of ethnic Russians in the rest of Ukraine as well as in the Baltic States, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and most of the other nations that used to form part of the USSR. By the same token, there are other ethnic groups that have members spread into other countries across Europe. The idea that the presence of an ethnic group should justify an invasion is anathema to peace and order on that continent.
5. The combination of Russia and Ukraine would give the resulting nation a much bigger power base than the Russians currently have. Ukraine is the most fertile region of the old USSR. It has nearly 50 million people. With Ukraine, Russia becomes a formidable power.
Put all this together and the conclusion is obvious. It is important that the Russians not be allowed to bring themselves back to the point where they could become a sustained threat to peace in Europe. Further, it is in the interests of the entire world to keep the concept that borders ought not be changed due to armed conflict. The USA and the rest of the world needs to act to make it clear to Russia that it will pay a heavy price for its invasion of Crimea.
But you say that the American people don't care, so why should our politicians bother with this subject? The simple truth is that Americans don't care about Ukraine because they do not understand why they ought to care. President Obama who gives speech after speech throughout the year has chosen not to address the need for action regarding Ukraine and Crimea. Oh, he has discussed discrete points about Crimea, but he has never given a full explanation to the American people why this is a subject that matters to us. The truth is that Obama does not care about it, and he sees no reason to get America interested in the subject. Obama's goal has been to do as little as possible in connection with the Russian invasion, so he is keeping his mouth shut on the topic.
Some of you may recall what happened when Iraq conquered Kuwait in the early 1990s. Most Americans had no idea where Kuwait was located, and they certainly did not want to get involved with that matter. The first president Bush, however, understood the strategic importance of Kuwait and the disaster that Iraqi control of that country would be for the USA. He rallied both domestic and world opinion against the Iraqi invasion. The result was a coalition that invaded Kuwait and ousted the Iraqis in the Gulf War. President Bush led on the subject. Unfortunately for us all, right now president Obama is hiding. It is a grave mistake.
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