I was surprised to see that a reporter writing in the National Journal today called the presidential race "almost over". According to that reporter, Josh Kraushaar, Hillary Clinton has essentially wrapped up the contest. But let's take a look at that statement.
1. Real Clear Politics keeps a list of all the polls that meet certain minimum standards for accuracy. The most recent five polls that the site lists in a race among Trump, Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein show one tie, one in which Trump leads by 1%, two in which Hillary leads by 2% and one in which she leads by 5%. If you average those polls, you get a lead by Hillary of 1.6%, hardly something that would say the election is almost over. On the other hand, if you drop the two outliers (Trump up by 1 and Hillary up by 5), then the average is even closer at Hillary up by 1.3%.
2. The trend in these polls is unmistakable. Two or three weeks ago, the average showed Hillary up by 8-9%. Since then, her support has been melting away and Trump has been rising. The loss by Hillary has been greater than the gain by Trump. This move, however, has been quite strong. The bounce that Clinton got from her convention has evaporated.
3. In the last week, Trump made his trip to Mexico, his immigration speech and his visit to Detroit where he spoke to African Americans and was interviewed on a black Christian network (an interview which hasn't even aired yet.) At the same time, Hillary Clinton spent her time fund raising from the super wealthy. And let's not forget that the FBI also released the notes of her interrogation and its report on the result of the investigation of her email. Of those events, only Trump's trip to Mexico had happened when any of the interviews included in the above polls were taken. No polls, however, came entirely after Trump's trip. I have not seen anyone other than the fiercest partisan who thinks that Trump's trip to Mexico, his visit to Detroit or the release of the FBI files will help Clinton or hurt Trump. Quite the contrary is true. If even one voter in one hundred were to change his or her mind from Clinton to Trump as a result of these events, then Trump would be in the lead.
4. The average of polls in individual states have not moved much towards Trump, but that is not surprising. There are many national polls and many fewer state polls. That means that the averages include many surveys that were taken when Hillary was ahead nationally by nearly ten percent. That lead is still reflected in the state poll averages. It will take a few weeks at a minimum before the state averages reflect the new reality shown in the national polls.
Put all this together and it means that there is no way in which a reporter could in good faith say that Hillary has essentially wrapped up the win. Such a view is either delusional or a purposeful lie. For political reporters, I rule out ignorance since these people spend their days reading the latest polls, following the campaigns and hearing the views of all manner of political "experts". I have to say that I don't think Josh Kraushaar is delusional.
The indisputable truth right now is that we do not know who will win in November. It's not even clear who has the better chance. That will depend to a great extent on events and on the debates.
1. Real Clear Politics keeps a list of all the polls that meet certain minimum standards for accuracy. The most recent five polls that the site lists in a race among Trump, Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein show one tie, one in which Trump leads by 1%, two in which Hillary leads by 2% and one in which she leads by 5%. If you average those polls, you get a lead by Hillary of 1.6%, hardly something that would say the election is almost over. On the other hand, if you drop the two outliers (Trump up by 1 and Hillary up by 5), then the average is even closer at Hillary up by 1.3%.
2. The trend in these polls is unmistakable. Two or three weeks ago, the average showed Hillary up by 8-9%. Since then, her support has been melting away and Trump has been rising. The loss by Hillary has been greater than the gain by Trump. This move, however, has been quite strong. The bounce that Clinton got from her convention has evaporated.
3. In the last week, Trump made his trip to Mexico, his immigration speech and his visit to Detroit where he spoke to African Americans and was interviewed on a black Christian network (an interview which hasn't even aired yet.) At the same time, Hillary Clinton spent her time fund raising from the super wealthy. And let's not forget that the FBI also released the notes of her interrogation and its report on the result of the investigation of her email. Of those events, only Trump's trip to Mexico had happened when any of the interviews included in the above polls were taken. No polls, however, came entirely after Trump's trip. I have not seen anyone other than the fiercest partisan who thinks that Trump's trip to Mexico, his visit to Detroit or the release of the FBI files will help Clinton or hurt Trump. Quite the contrary is true. If even one voter in one hundred were to change his or her mind from Clinton to Trump as a result of these events, then Trump would be in the lead.
4. The average of polls in individual states have not moved much towards Trump, but that is not surprising. There are many national polls and many fewer state polls. That means that the averages include many surveys that were taken when Hillary was ahead nationally by nearly ten percent. That lead is still reflected in the state poll averages. It will take a few weeks at a minimum before the state averages reflect the new reality shown in the national polls.
Put all this together and it means that there is no way in which a reporter could in good faith say that Hillary has essentially wrapped up the win. Such a view is either delusional or a purposeful lie. For political reporters, I rule out ignorance since these people spend their days reading the latest polls, following the campaigns and hearing the views of all manner of political "experts". I have to say that I don't think Josh Kraushaar is delusional.
The indisputable truth right now is that we do not know who will win in November. It's not even clear who has the better chance. That will depend to a great extent on events and on the debates.
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