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Friday, October 28, 2016

One More Polling Note

One poll that gets little notice from the media is from Rasmussen.  Today's tracking poll shows the race between Trump and Clinton tied at 45% each.

Does that mean anything?  Only that the race is close as seen by Rasmussen.  Two other items from the survey though are of interest.

First, among voters who have made up their minds and say that will not change, Trump leads Clinton by two percent.

Second, among voters who are not really certain of their choices, Clinton is way ahead. Clinton has  49% in this group to Trump’s 30%, Johnson’s six percent (6%) and Stein’s 16%.  That's a bad sign for Hillary.  It means that there is a much bigger basis for a shift to Trump rather than a shift to Hillary.  Of course, the 16% who favor Stein right now would be way more likely to vote for Hillary than Trump, so this evens things out a bit.

The bottom line is that it's close according to Rasmussen.

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