In the last day, the Russians have issued a public warning to the USA in which Moscow tells Washington NOT to attack the forces of Bashir al Assad in Syria. Russia warns of tectonic consequences across the Middle East were such an American attack to take place.
Why have the Russians issued such a warning? Do they actually expect president Obama to authorize the use of force against Assad's soldiers? After all, what exactly have the Assad forces done? Sure, the Assad forces have killed over 400,000 people across Syria which is around 80% of all those who have died in that war. It's true also that the Assad forces used chemical weapons in violation of international treaties, but then they agreed to give up all those chemical weapons. Of course, the Assad forces have been using chemical weapons again in the last four months despite their agreement with the USA that such use had ended. The Assad forces also refused to let humanitarian aid get through to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians who have been starving for many months. The Assad forces also bombed Red Cross convoys with great loss of life when it seemed that aid to the starving might get through during the recent cease fire. But c'mon. Do the Russians actually think that Obama would take any action just because of those things? Really? It is president Obama after all. Clearly, the Russians don't really expect any military action by the USA against the Assad forces.
So what is really going on here? The answer is that the Russians are posturing to make themselves look strong and the USA look weak. When Obama does nothing after being warned by Moscow, it looks like he held back because he did not want to risk Moscow's displeasure. America's allies in the region will see this and worry that Obama and the USA are unreliable partners. Russia's allies will also see that and take comfort that Russia could face down the big, bad USA.
The reality, of course, is something totally different. After Assad and the Russians (and the Iranians) undermined and destroyed the cease fire agreement, there is no reason to show restraint towards them. Obama could easily order an attack on bases used by Assad to launch chemical weapons attacks, or Obama could just hit five or ten Assad bases rather than hitting the specific ones used to send out the chemical weapons. He could announce that America is taking that action to stop continuing illegal usage of chemical weapons by Assad. We could inflict some major damage on the Assad forces and then stop. There will be no response from Assad; he cannot risk further US action against him. Russia is not going to attack American forces; that could lead to war and neither side would risk that. All that would happen is that our allies would respect us, our adversaries fear us, and the Russian/Assad push to gain control of Syria would be thwarted for the time being.
It's worth remembering that Assad ruled as a dictator in Syria. He led the members of the Alawaite sect who comprise only about one-eighth of the Syrian population prior to the war. Three quarters of the people were Sunni Moslems and they were totally under the thumb of Assad and his secret police. The rest were Christians, Druse, Bahai and Yazidis who did not have it as good as even the Sunnis. Under Assad, a tiny minority controlled the entire country.
I am not advocating for a US strike on the Assad forces although I believe that it should be realistically considered. It is important, however, that our super-weak president try to gather up the courage just for once to do the right thing.
Why have the Russians issued such a warning? Do they actually expect president Obama to authorize the use of force against Assad's soldiers? After all, what exactly have the Assad forces done? Sure, the Assad forces have killed over 400,000 people across Syria which is around 80% of all those who have died in that war. It's true also that the Assad forces used chemical weapons in violation of international treaties, but then they agreed to give up all those chemical weapons. Of course, the Assad forces have been using chemical weapons again in the last four months despite their agreement with the USA that such use had ended. The Assad forces also refused to let humanitarian aid get through to hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians who have been starving for many months. The Assad forces also bombed Red Cross convoys with great loss of life when it seemed that aid to the starving might get through during the recent cease fire. But c'mon. Do the Russians actually think that Obama would take any action just because of those things? Really? It is president Obama after all. Clearly, the Russians don't really expect any military action by the USA against the Assad forces.
So what is really going on here? The answer is that the Russians are posturing to make themselves look strong and the USA look weak. When Obama does nothing after being warned by Moscow, it looks like he held back because he did not want to risk Moscow's displeasure. America's allies in the region will see this and worry that Obama and the USA are unreliable partners. Russia's allies will also see that and take comfort that Russia could face down the big, bad USA.
The reality, of course, is something totally different. After Assad and the Russians (and the Iranians) undermined and destroyed the cease fire agreement, there is no reason to show restraint towards them. Obama could easily order an attack on bases used by Assad to launch chemical weapons attacks, or Obama could just hit five or ten Assad bases rather than hitting the specific ones used to send out the chemical weapons. He could announce that America is taking that action to stop continuing illegal usage of chemical weapons by Assad. We could inflict some major damage on the Assad forces and then stop. There will be no response from Assad; he cannot risk further US action against him. Russia is not going to attack American forces; that could lead to war and neither side would risk that. All that would happen is that our allies would respect us, our adversaries fear us, and the Russian/Assad push to gain control of Syria would be thwarted for the time being.
It's worth remembering that Assad ruled as a dictator in Syria. He led the members of the Alawaite sect who comprise only about one-eighth of the Syrian population prior to the war. Three quarters of the people were Sunni Moslems and they were totally under the thumb of Assad and his secret police. The rest were Christians, Druse, Bahai and Yazidis who did not have it as good as even the Sunnis. Under Assad, a tiny minority controlled the entire country.
I am not advocating for a US strike on the Assad forces although I believe that it should be realistically considered. It is important, however, that our super-weak president try to gather up the courage just for once to do the right thing.
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