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Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The Final Debate -- A Clear Victory

The third debate of the 2016 presidential campaign is now over.  Of the three confrontations between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, this was by far the most policy oriented.  It was also by far Trump's best performance of the three.  Indeed, there were many segments in which the debate seemed to be a confrontation between Hillary who was talking and talking and talking without saying much and Trump who was zinging her for her many failures over the years.  A good example of this was the question from Chris Wallace about whether or not the candidates would support leaving American troops in Iraq after Mosul is retaken and organized ISIS forces are pushed from that county.  Hillary gave a rather bizarre answer in which she tried to use a straw man like president Obama likes to do.  She started by saying that she would not be in favor of having an American occupation of Iraq after the fighting.  Of course, no one suggested that there be an occupation.  The USA has troops in Korea and Germany, but we do not "occupy" those countries.  We just have forces based there which serve many purposes like showing our commitment to common defense or making clear to any enemy that an attack on those countries would bring an American response.  That's what the question was clearly about, but Hillary chose to ignore that.  Then she went on to talk about a laundry list of other items including thing as disparate as keeping people on the no-fly list from buying weapons.  It was as if Hillary's brain got stuck in some sort of feedback loop and just couldn't stop.  Trump used his answer to the same question to point out that it was Hillary's mistakes in connection with the withdrawal from Iraq that led to the creation of ISIS and the need to take Mosul a second time.  The questions of this sort that pitted the filibustering Hillary against the zinging Trump did not go well for Hillary Clinton. 

Trump also used the debate to hit Clinton on some of the most recent Wikileaks and FBI documents and other stories.  He hit Hillary for the news that her campaign arranged for and paid people to start violent protests and fights at Trump rallies.  She never denied the charge which said volumes about her sleazy campaign.  We heard a discussion of the Clinton Foundation and the whole issue of "pay to play" at the State Department.  Wallace pointed to the recent disclosures that under Hillary, the State Department gave special preference for grants and contracts to those who had given to the Foundation or who were so-called Friends of Bill (big campaign contributors).  Hillary's response to this issue was another filibuster.  She spoke about what a wonderful organization the Clinton Foundation is, but she never addressed the pay to play scandal.  Wallace interrupted her to ask again about pay to play, and Hillary went right back to her filibuster.  It was a terrible performance.

There were bad moments too for Trump.  His refusal to say that he would surely accept the results of the election was a silly move on his part in my opinion.  It will, no doubt, be a focus of the post debate coverage from the pro-Hillary media since there is so little else to discuss.  He should not have given them this story.  Trump also avoided some questions, although not anything like Hillary did.  When asked about Social Security and Medicare, Trump pivoted and spoke about Obamacare.  What he said was effective, but the question never got answered.  Of course, Hillary then answered the same question and, for the most part, failed to answer it as well.

On the whole, this was a clear victory at the debate for Trump.  That, however, is not the whole story.  We will now have two or three days of post debate coverage.  Most likely the main focus of the mainstream media will be Trump's refusal to say that he will surely accept the result of the election.  It will step on his victory.

There are a few things that are clear from the debate:

1.  Most people who watched the debate will come away with the perception that Hillary Clinton is dishonest and shifty.  You can only watch someone avoid answering questions for so long before reaching that conclusion.
2.  The audience saw a Trump who was calmer and more thoughtful than he has been in past debates.  Whether or not that will be sufficient to change the perceptions of the electorate regarding Trump remains to be seen.
3.  Trump made his basic points which are that Hillary is all talk but accomplishes nothing and that where Hillary has actually acted while secretary of state, the results were astoundingly bad for the USA.  Hillary threw out her charges that Trump is a bad man, but I don't think that they will convince anyone based upon tonight's performance.

My guess is that the polls are unlikely to shift in a major way in the next few days.  Of course, there is essentially no one in the country who has been able to predict where the polls would go in this race, so I am not sure why I have even bothered to make that prediction.
 

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