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Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The Vice Presidential Debate -- or -- No We Kaine't

The vice presidential debate between senator Tim Kaine and governor Mike Pence just ended.  It was really an amazing thing to watch.  Someone in the Clinton organization obviously decided that Kaine should be rude and constantly interrupt Pence.  Maybe they thought that those interruptions would rattle Pence.  They didn't.  Instead, American just got the chance to see Kaine as unbelievably rude and certainly unpresidential.  On top of the interruptions, Kaine often looked nervous, something that surprised me.  Pence seemed calm and often bemused.  It was quite a negative contrast for the Democrat.  Then there was the content of what was said.  Each candidate pushed the message of his ticket.  For Kaine, the message was that Donald Trump is bad and shouldn't be president.  He kept harking back to Trump's tax returns or something that Trump had said in the past.  He had very little in the way of actual statements on policy.  Pence focused to a great extent on foreign policy, but he also spoke about reviving the economy and bringing CHANGE to Washington and the USA.  We will see how the polls rate the encounter, but in my opinion, it was a decisive victory for Mike Pence.

There were some particularly strong moments in the debate.  One of great importance was the discussion of the economy and getting the economy growing again.  Kaine talked about Hillary encouraging growth, but there was not much substance at that point.  Kaine tried to talk about how good things are in the economy at the moment.  Pence accurately described Hillary's plans as a massive tax increase on America coupled with an even larger increase in federal spending.  Pence contrasted that with Trump's plan to cut taxes, reduce regulations, end the war on coal and replace Obamacare among other things.  Pence pointed out that Kaine could talk about the wonderful economy, but the American people knew the reality.  He looked into the camera and said, in substance, that if you like the way the economy is going then vote for Hillary, but if you want change vote for Trump.

A second moment of great importance came at the very end of the debate.  The candidates were asked how they would bring the country together if their ticket won the election.  Kaine spoke first and went on about how Hillary had worked together in a bipartisan manner in the senate and as first lady.  Anyone who has watched Hillary all these years knew that was just an out and out lie, but even so, it was a rather weak response.  Pence's response was his best of the night.  Pence said that he and Trump would bring America together by finally bringing real change to the country after all those years of Washington just talking about change.  Kaine and Hillary were the Washington insiders, the lifetime politicians who talk about this bill or that but who never change anything.  Pence and Trump were the outsiders, the bringers of real change.  In 2016, no contrast could be better for the electorate.

Kaine not only interrupted Pence on a near constant basis, but he adopted a tiresome mantra of asking Pence to "defend" something or other that Trump was supposed to have said.  Pence never took the bait.  He shook his head no, or he occasionally indicated that what Kaine was charging to Trump was untrue.  Then Pence went on with explaining why the voters should choose Trump.  Kaine's strategy seemed to fizzle into nothingness.  There are only so many times that voters want to see Kaine try to bait Pence without effect before deciding that Kaine was second rate.

Some of the Kaine attacks clearly backfired.  On multiple occasions, Kaine denounced Trump and Pence for calling Russian president Putin a better leader than president Obama.  As a result, Pence had multiple times when he got to call Putin something equivalent to a horrible thug.  More than anything, Kaine's attacks got America to hear a clear answer of the views of the Republican ticket regarding the Russian president.

Two final notes:  first, the moderator Elaine Quijano did a terrible job.  Many criticized Lester Holt after the first debate and Matt Lauer after the NBC Commander in Chief Forum, but Quijano made both of them look like the greatest moderators of all time.  She completely lost control of the debate.  She spoke so softly that she could not be heard over Kaine's interruptions.  Even when she tried to bring the debate back to the questions she had asked, she was ignored.  She should not moderate one of these events again.

Second, there were a great many factual mistakes that I saw.  Kaine was particularly mistaken (or dishonest) when talking about Hillary Clinton and Russia.  Here are a two examples of that:
a.  Kaine said that Hillary got Russia to reduce its nuclear weapons through the Start agreement.  That's just wrong.  When the US signed the Start agreement with Russia, that agreement required the USA to reduce its nuclear arsenal; the Russians had no such obligation.
b.  Kaine said that Hillary confronted the Russians over their invasion of Georgia.  That's just wrong.  Russia invaded Georgia in the summer of 2008 when Bush was still president.  As a result, the USA and most of Europe put major sanctions on Russia to try to get them to withdraw.  When Obama took office six months later and brought Hillary in to run foreign policy, she pushed for the "Russian Reset".  That reset consisted of the USA ending the sanctions that were in place due to the invasion of Georgia and the resumption of normal diplomacy.  Russia got to keep the land it took in Georgia and Hillary just waived the sanctions.  It was a major victory for the Russians.

It's doubtful that the VP debate will change the polls much.  These debates usually don't.  Still, these were a major plus for the Republican ticket.
 

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