Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles from inside its own territory at a number of bases in Iraq. In each case the bases were Iraqi installations that also house American troops and equipment. Missiles were also launched by Iran that appeared to be aimed at the US consulate in Erbil, Iraq. This is surprising in many ways.
1. I have to admit that I am surprised that the Iranians launched directly from their own territory rather than having some militia or other proxy make the attack from someplace inside Iraq so that Iran could deny responsibility. For many decades, the Iranians have hidden behind a facade of phony front organizations so that they could pretend not to be involved. They can't deny tonight's attack. Indeed, Iran announced that the Ayatollah himself directed the attacks. This puts Iran directly on record; it has launched attacks at Americans, just the thing that President Trump said he would not tolerate. The Ayatollah is calling the President's bluff, (and I don't think he was bluffing.)
2. Despite launching a large number of missiles, the Iranians appear not to have caused any American casualties. Their missiles do not seem to have hit their intended targets. For example, as noted above, there were missiles that appeared to have been aimed at the US consulate in Erbil. We can't be sure, however, because the missiles did not come within a quarter mile of the consulate. They hit Iraqi neighborhoods instead. Similarly, a number of the missiles launched at the bases didn't actually hit the bases, but rather Iraqi areas surrounding the bases. There have been casualties among the Iraqis, but it is unclear at the moment how many are soldiers and how many are civilians. This is surprising. After all, this is the initial launch by Iran of missiles. They were not harried in any way by American or other forces. They had the luxury of picking the time and place for the launches. The Iranians had all the time they needed to set up their guidance systems in order to inflict maximum damage. It's surprising just how poorly the Iranian missile forces performed. Clearly the ballistic missiles used cannot be aimed with great accuracy by the Iranians.
3. The combination of Iran taking responsibility and performing so poorly is surprising also in that it makes Iran look like a joke. The vaunted strike that the Iranians predicted has turned into a bumbling bit of random death inflicted on those who happen to be unfortunate enough to be where the missiles actually landed rather than where they were aimed. Indeed, it seems that the safest place to be in Iraq tonight was on the target at which the Iranians were aiming.
4. It's also surprising to see the reaction of the financial markets to these events. As I write this at 9:45 EST, the S&P futures are down by about 0.75%. That's not good, but it is hardly a panicked reaction. The market is looking at this attack as something that is unlikely to lead to all out war. The decline as of now is not more than the declines on many other down days. If there were real fear, the market could easily be down four or five times as much.
5. One thing that is not surprising is the methodical response from the White House. The President met with the secretaries of State and Defense and the national security team after the attack. President Trump is not going to speak to the nation tonight. Instead, there will be an address tomorrow. We have not yet launched any attack in response. It will come, though. It will come for sure.
One does have to wonder if President Trump will use these attacks to put it to the Democrats in Congress who complain about everything he does. What if Trump asks Congress for authority to retaliate against Iran. Would the Democrats actually vote against a resolution granting that authority in the face of a blatant attack by Iran on our forces? The Dems are crazy enough that the House might actually refuse to vote and thereby stymie any response. It would be political suicide for the Dems to do that, but that really doesn't matter. Nevertheless, I doubt Trump would try that route. After all, were the Dems to block a response, it would be very bad for the USA. I don't think he would risk it.
1. I have to admit that I am surprised that the Iranians launched directly from their own territory rather than having some militia or other proxy make the attack from someplace inside Iraq so that Iran could deny responsibility. For many decades, the Iranians have hidden behind a facade of phony front organizations so that they could pretend not to be involved. They can't deny tonight's attack. Indeed, Iran announced that the Ayatollah himself directed the attacks. This puts Iran directly on record; it has launched attacks at Americans, just the thing that President Trump said he would not tolerate. The Ayatollah is calling the President's bluff, (and I don't think he was bluffing.)
2. Despite launching a large number of missiles, the Iranians appear not to have caused any American casualties. Their missiles do not seem to have hit their intended targets. For example, as noted above, there were missiles that appeared to have been aimed at the US consulate in Erbil. We can't be sure, however, because the missiles did not come within a quarter mile of the consulate. They hit Iraqi neighborhoods instead. Similarly, a number of the missiles launched at the bases didn't actually hit the bases, but rather Iraqi areas surrounding the bases. There have been casualties among the Iraqis, but it is unclear at the moment how many are soldiers and how many are civilians. This is surprising. After all, this is the initial launch by Iran of missiles. They were not harried in any way by American or other forces. They had the luxury of picking the time and place for the launches. The Iranians had all the time they needed to set up their guidance systems in order to inflict maximum damage. It's surprising just how poorly the Iranian missile forces performed. Clearly the ballistic missiles used cannot be aimed with great accuracy by the Iranians.
3. The combination of Iran taking responsibility and performing so poorly is surprising also in that it makes Iran look like a joke. The vaunted strike that the Iranians predicted has turned into a bumbling bit of random death inflicted on those who happen to be unfortunate enough to be where the missiles actually landed rather than where they were aimed. Indeed, it seems that the safest place to be in Iraq tonight was on the target at which the Iranians were aiming.
4. It's also surprising to see the reaction of the financial markets to these events. As I write this at 9:45 EST, the S&P futures are down by about 0.75%. That's not good, but it is hardly a panicked reaction. The market is looking at this attack as something that is unlikely to lead to all out war. The decline as of now is not more than the declines on many other down days. If there were real fear, the market could easily be down four or five times as much.
5. One thing that is not surprising is the methodical response from the White House. The President met with the secretaries of State and Defense and the national security team after the attack. President Trump is not going to speak to the nation tonight. Instead, there will be an address tomorrow. We have not yet launched any attack in response. It will come, though. It will come for sure.
One does have to wonder if President Trump will use these attacks to put it to the Democrats in Congress who complain about everything he does. What if Trump asks Congress for authority to retaliate against Iran. Would the Democrats actually vote against a resolution granting that authority in the face of a blatant attack by Iran on our forces? The Dems are crazy enough that the House might actually refuse to vote and thereby stymie any response. It would be political suicide for the Dems to do that, but that really doesn't matter. Nevertheless, I doubt Trump would try that route. After all, were the Dems to block a response, it would be very bad for the USA. I don't think he would risk it.
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