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Sunday, January 19, 2020

Keeping Positive

For the umpteenth time in the last year, I heard a TV pundit give the opinion that Americans vote for something, not against something.  It's one of those things that pundits say that sounds intelligent but which falls apart when you actually think about it.  Republicans mostly vote for Republicans but they also vote against Democrats.  Socialists vote for socialism, but they also vote against capitalism.  No matter what someone votes for, there's always the opposite that they are voting against.

I think that a better way to look at how people vote is that Americans vote for accomplishments or policies that have or will help them in their lives.  They vote against empty promises that are nothing but words.  It's a variant on the old adage that actions speak louder than words. 

Let's look at it this way.  In the three years since he took office, President Trump has presided over an extremely strong economy.  During those three years, wage growth has reignited.  For the first time in about a decade, wages for lower and middle income Americans have been rising even after adjusting for inflation.  Even better, wages for middle and lower income Americans have been rising faster than wages for higher income Americans.  Minority unemployment has dropped to the lowest level ever.  Jobs for women have grown faster than expected.  In short, all the groups that the Democrats claim to champion have done really well under Trump's economic leadership.  Trump's actual policies have resulted in some extremely impressive economic achievements.  On the other side of the ledger, you have what the Democrats have been saying.  In 2016, after eight years of Democrat control of the economy under Obama, the Democrats lamented the growing inequality of income in America.  The rich got richer, but the middle and lower income groups got nothing.  Three years later, some of the Democrats are still saying this.  Some have vague plans for the economy, while others just lament how bad the economy is.  Of course, the problem for the Democrats is that American voters are alive.  They know from daily experience what the nature of their lives is.  They recognize what the Democrats are saying regarding the economy as just words.  And they recognize those words as being unlikely to lead to policies that will help their lives improve in the future.

If you want to drive this point home, take a moment to consider how the economy would do if Bernie Sanders (who leads the latest polling) were to be president.  He wants to shut down the fossil fuel industries.  That means millions of people who work in coal, oil or natural gas industries would be out of work.  Bernie also wants to tax the big banks and the nation's financial firms out of existence.  That's millions more unemployed.  Retired people who supplement their social security payments with some income from their investments in stocks or bonds would see that income fade away and the value of the investments plummet were Bernie to be in charge.  These are not wild accusations of how bad Bernie would make the economy.  They are just basic economic analysis of the inevitable outcome.  Americans who understand this are almost certain not to vote for Bernie. 

On the other hand consider how the economy would do were Biden president.  Sure, Biden's family would do really well if the past is any guide.  But we're not talking about greed and graft right now.  How would the average American do under a Biden presidency.  Biden is someone who doesn't really have policy proposals.  He talks about how the economy doesn't work for the average American, but that seems to be Old Joe just remembering how things were under Obama.  He really offers nothing much about his plans for the economy while still making clear that he doesn't care much about the average worker.  Remember, it was Biden who was asked if he would push for ending carbon all emissions even if it meant hundreds of thousands or millions losing their jobs.  Old Joe said "yes."

Each voter will have to make a choice:  continued prosperity under Trump with gains particularly for those who need it the most, or schemes from the Democrats that would likely cause a major depression.  Those are just words, I know.  On this issue, though, that choice is a reality.

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