The Census Bureau released its estimate of state populations as of the middle of 2019. There are a few things of importance to note.
1. If the numbers stay on the same track in 2020 when the actual census is done, there will be a shift of congressional seats. For the first time since it became a state in the mid-19th century, California will actually lose a seat. Texas will gain three and Florida two. Another batch of states will gain or lose one. These changes will first affect the 2022 congressional elections and the 2024 presidential election.
2. States that votes for President Trump will gain a net of six electoral votes. Those that voted for Clinton will lose the same number.
3. Areas that tend to vote Democrat will lose a batch of congressional seats to areas that tend to vote Republican.
It's also worth noting that in recent polling, the job approval rating for Donald Trump among African Americans has climbed on average to the low 30%'s. Remember, Trump got just 8% or less of the black vote in 2016. Job approval is not the same as voting for someone for president, but it is the best equivalent around. If just half of the African Americans who approve of Trump's job performance vote for him, he would double his percentage of the black vote in 2020 compared to 2016. Trump's approval rating among Hispanics is also much higher than his percentage of the vote from that group in 2016.
These facts show, once again, that all those experts who predicted that "demography is destiny" we just being foolish. The idea was that as America's people grew less white and more minorities, the Democrats would inevitably control all of our elections. This view has been pushed by media pundits and university professors since at least 2000. Of course, that prediction requires that blacks continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat and that other minorities do the same. That may be an erroneous assumption.
The truth is that for the first time in many years, the Republicans have a candidate (and we have a president) who not only talks about minorities, but who actually does things that help improve their lives. Even during the Obama years, the nation's first black president did precious little to help African Americans. One couldn't say that because there would be an immediate chorus accusing the speaker of racism. Now, however, the facts speak for themselves. Economically, blacks are doing better today than ever before. Black unemployment is at record lows. Black business creation is at record highs. Black median income is growing faster today than at any time this century. Given these economic facts of life, it seems that a sizable number of blacks will care more about continuing the good economic times for them and their families and less about what the President said or didn't say to the Ukrainian president on a phone call or about what the President says in his latest tweet.
In 2016, when Trump asked for black support, he famously asked, "What do you have to lose?" This time around, the question will be different. Trump can validly ask, "Do you want to lose the gains achieved under my leadership?"
1. If the numbers stay on the same track in 2020 when the actual census is done, there will be a shift of congressional seats. For the first time since it became a state in the mid-19th century, California will actually lose a seat. Texas will gain three and Florida two. Another batch of states will gain or lose one. These changes will first affect the 2022 congressional elections and the 2024 presidential election.
2. States that votes for President Trump will gain a net of six electoral votes. Those that voted for Clinton will lose the same number.
3. Areas that tend to vote Democrat will lose a batch of congressional seats to areas that tend to vote Republican.
It's also worth noting that in recent polling, the job approval rating for Donald Trump among African Americans has climbed on average to the low 30%'s. Remember, Trump got just 8% or less of the black vote in 2016. Job approval is not the same as voting for someone for president, but it is the best equivalent around. If just half of the African Americans who approve of Trump's job performance vote for him, he would double his percentage of the black vote in 2020 compared to 2016. Trump's approval rating among Hispanics is also much higher than his percentage of the vote from that group in 2016.
These facts show, once again, that all those experts who predicted that "demography is destiny" we just being foolish. The idea was that as America's people grew less white and more minorities, the Democrats would inevitably control all of our elections. This view has been pushed by media pundits and university professors since at least 2000. Of course, that prediction requires that blacks continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat and that other minorities do the same. That may be an erroneous assumption.
The truth is that for the first time in many years, the Republicans have a candidate (and we have a president) who not only talks about minorities, but who actually does things that help improve their lives. Even during the Obama years, the nation's first black president did precious little to help African Americans. One couldn't say that because there would be an immediate chorus accusing the speaker of racism. Now, however, the facts speak for themselves. Economically, blacks are doing better today than ever before. Black unemployment is at record lows. Black business creation is at record highs. Black median income is growing faster today than at any time this century. Given these economic facts of life, it seems that a sizable number of blacks will care more about continuing the good economic times for them and their families and less about what the President said or didn't say to the Ukrainian president on a phone call or about what the President says in his latest tweet.
In 2016, when Trump asked for black support, he famously asked, "What do you have to lose?" This time around, the question will be different. Trump can validly ask, "Do you want to lose the gains achieved under my leadership?"
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