One bit of political information that has gotten no attention at all from the mainstream media is perhaps the most consequential result of the impeachment saga so far. The approval numbers for the Democrats in Congress are tanking with the public. The generic congressional poll is asked often to the public nationwide. The question is "if the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district." No names are used. The poll really measures the feelings of the public towards the two parties.
There were two polls released the first week of the year. In those polls, the Democrats had leads over the GOP of 8% and 10%. Those are the sort of leads that indicate that the Democrats would maintain control of the House if an election were held at that time. DSuring the week prior to the start of the impeachment trial, when Nancy Pelosi was still holding the articles of impeachment, there were also two polls released. These two showed Democrats leading Republicans by 3% and 4%. Those numbers indicate the control of the House would be a toss up were the election held at that time. Today, the latest of these polls was released. It shows the Democrats leading the GOP by 1%. This is the worst performance by the Democrats in these polls in at least a year. It's a result that indicates that the GOP would win the House were there an election today. (The GOP wins because Democrats are concentrated in big cities while Republicans are spread more evenly across rural and suburban districts.)
These numbers should be extremely alarming to the Democrats. The impeachment mess has managed to tar the Democrat party in a way that Trump hadn't managed to accomplish. If the trend continues, it could quickly put the Democrats into a situation where they lose not only the presidential race in 2020 but also control of the House and any chance the party has to pick up seats in the Senate.
It's also important that the Democrats' impeachment moves have solidified Republican unity and support for Trump. It's hard to imagine what else the Democrats could have done to motivate the Republican base more for 2020.
It's a double blow for the Democrats. They united and motivated their opposition while at the same time they have been bleeding off their own support.
There were two polls released the first week of the year. In those polls, the Democrats had leads over the GOP of 8% and 10%. Those are the sort of leads that indicate that the Democrats would maintain control of the House if an election were held at that time. DSuring the week prior to the start of the impeachment trial, when Nancy Pelosi was still holding the articles of impeachment, there were also two polls released. These two showed Democrats leading Republicans by 3% and 4%. Those numbers indicate the control of the House would be a toss up were the election held at that time. Today, the latest of these polls was released. It shows the Democrats leading the GOP by 1%. This is the worst performance by the Democrats in these polls in at least a year. It's a result that indicates that the GOP would win the House were there an election today. (The GOP wins because Democrats are concentrated in big cities while Republicans are spread more evenly across rural and suburban districts.)
These numbers should be extremely alarming to the Democrats. The impeachment mess has managed to tar the Democrat party in a way that Trump hadn't managed to accomplish. If the trend continues, it could quickly put the Democrats into a situation where they lose not only the presidential race in 2020 but also control of the House and any chance the party has to pick up seats in the Senate.
It's also important that the Democrats' impeachment moves have solidified Republican unity and support for Trump. It's hard to imagine what else the Democrats could have done to motivate the Republican base more for 2020.
It's a double blow for the Democrats. They united and motivated their opposition while at the same time they have been bleeding off their own support.
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