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Sunday, January 26, 2020

It's Bad Enough Without The Hysteria

The Wuhan virus is bad.  It has been killing people in China and it is spreading.  Right now it seems to be fatal in about five percent of cases, but it is way too early to tell if this percentage is correct.  We don't know how many people have been infected because there may be a great many people who have the virus but who have such mild symptoms that they haven't sought the treatment of a doctor.  It may turn out to be not much greater a threat than a strong strain of the flu, or it could be a major killer.  We just don't know yet.  Only time and more data will provide that answer.  We also don't know if existing anti-viral drugs are effective, even in a small way, against this new virus.  That is something that should be answerable soon, but this answer too will require time and more data.

There is no reason for hysteria in the face of what we know about the virus.  Unfortunately, the media doesn't seem able to discuss the virus in any way except by being hysterical.  For example, the banner headline on the Drudge Report as I write this is

VIRUS "STRENGTHENING"

The headline is actually larger on the Drudge Report, but this gives you the idea.  The headline attaches to a Reuters piece in which a Chinese official is quoted as saying that the Wuhan virus appears to be strengthening.  So what does that mean?  Did the official mean what the headline indicates, i.e., that the virus appears to be doing more damage to people infected as the days have passed?  I doubt it.  Most likely, the official spoke in Chinese and indicated that the virus was strengthening its hold on the human population meaning that it has spread far enough that eradicating the virus is no longer a very likely outcome.  There are too many people infected over too wide an area for authorities to track down and isolate everyone carrying the virus.  My guess is that the authors of the Reuters article know what the Chinese official actually meant but wrote it this way to have more of an impact and to draw more readers.  After all, hysteria sells.


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