The outbreak of a new virus centered in the Chinese city of Wuhan has many in the media in a tizzy. They are predicting a world wide pandemic that could be as bad as the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed over 50 million people. A similar epidemic today would result in over 300 million dead. Aside from selling papers or getting visits to websites, though, how real is the danger? Is this just the next promised disaster that will turn out to be nothing? Or will this be a true disaster, something that kills millions and causes major disruptions to human life on earth?
Let's start with what we know:
1. The only deaths so far from the disease are in China. Cases, however, have popped up in about ten other countries among people who have recently arrived from central China.
2. It appears that the disease can be transmitted from person to person. Medical personnel who treated some of those ill with the disease have contracted it. It's not totally clear, however, what sort of mechanism is used by the virus to move from person to person. It could require contact with bodily fluids (blood, vomit, etc) like Ebola, or it could be much worse and be transmittable through the air. In the next week, we should know the answer for certain. If contact with body fluids is needed, the threat from the disease is much less.
3. There is no known treatment. Since this is a virus, antibiotics are totally ineffective. Antivirals might work, but it's hard to know just which one would be effective (if any).
4. The pharmaceutical industry will drop everything to focus on a cure for this virus, but at the same time the virus might mutate. By the time one strain is brought under control, a new strain might appear that would require a completely new effort.
Things we don't know:
1. We don't know when the person infected becomes contagious. It may be only once symptoms have appeared, or it could be early in an incubation period. The latter would mean that someone with no symptoms could become infected and then spread the disease across a city just by going about his or her daily routine.
2. We don't know how long it will take to find a cure.
3. We don't know how deadly the disease is once it has spread through a large population.
4. We don't know if certain people already have immunity to the virus as a result of previous illnesses.
Right now, we can't be sure what the future course of this disease will be. It could be contained in China. If it were to spread to a poor crowded country, though, the lack of proper public health measures could let the disease become widespread and essentially unstoppable.
You know, maybe the media isn't making a big deal about this disease for no reason.
Let's start with what we know:
1. The only deaths so far from the disease are in China. Cases, however, have popped up in about ten other countries among people who have recently arrived from central China.
2. It appears that the disease can be transmitted from person to person. Medical personnel who treated some of those ill with the disease have contracted it. It's not totally clear, however, what sort of mechanism is used by the virus to move from person to person. It could require contact with bodily fluids (blood, vomit, etc) like Ebola, or it could be much worse and be transmittable through the air. In the next week, we should know the answer for certain. If contact with body fluids is needed, the threat from the disease is much less.
3. There is no known treatment. Since this is a virus, antibiotics are totally ineffective. Antivirals might work, but it's hard to know just which one would be effective (if any).
4. The pharmaceutical industry will drop everything to focus on a cure for this virus, but at the same time the virus might mutate. By the time one strain is brought under control, a new strain might appear that would require a completely new effort.
Things we don't know:
1. We don't know when the person infected becomes contagious. It may be only once symptoms have appeared, or it could be early in an incubation period. The latter would mean that someone with no symptoms could become infected and then spread the disease across a city just by going about his or her daily routine.
2. We don't know how long it will take to find a cure.
3. We don't know how deadly the disease is once it has spread through a large population.
4. We don't know if certain people already have immunity to the virus as a result of previous illnesses.
Right now, we can't be sure what the future course of this disease will be. It could be contained in China. If it were to spread to a poor crowded country, though, the lack of proper public health measures could let the disease become widespread and essentially unstoppable.
You know, maybe the media isn't making a big deal about this disease for no reason.
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