It's a rather strange thing but I keep seeing or hearing attacks on models for the virus as well as on doctors like Dr. Birx and Dr Fauci because they said that there would be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the USA and that this past week and next week would be the worst period for deaths. It seems to me that the people engaging in these attacks have too much time on their hands.
Let's start with the basic reality.
1. The models were presented by Fauci and Birx as showing 100,000 to 240,000 deaths unless Americans did better than expected with social distancing. The doctors also said that the numbers were only as good as the models and that these models would be continuously updated as more data came in. So even as presented, the models were said only to be approximate and based upon assumptions which could be improved.
2. The doctors also told us that the worst weeks would be the current week, next week and/or the week after that if the models are correct.
So what does this mean?
1. The people attacking the models and the doctors are ignoring all the qualifications put on the original numbers and instead etching them in stone. That's just silly.
2. Some morons are actually complaining that in the past five days "only" 7000 people died instead of the much higher numbers mentioned by the doctors. Shouldn't we be rejoicing at these lower numbers? For whatever reason, things are not as bad as was feared and that's a good thing.
3. If the numbers are better than was expected, that should mean that we can open up the economy more quickly. That, too, is a good thing.
Let's start with the basic reality.
1. The models were presented by Fauci and Birx as showing 100,000 to 240,000 deaths unless Americans did better than expected with social distancing. The doctors also said that the numbers were only as good as the models and that these models would be continuously updated as more data came in. So even as presented, the models were said only to be approximate and based upon assumptions which could be improved.
2. The doctors also told us that the worst weeks would be the current week, next week and/or the week after that if the models are correct.
So what does this mean?
1. The people attacking the models and the doctors are ignoring all the qualifications put on the original numbers and instead etching them in stone. That's just silly.
2. Some morons are actually complaining that in the past five days "only" 7000 people died instead of the much higher numbers mentioned by the doctors. Shouldn't we be rejoicing at these lower numbers? For whatever reason, things are not as bad as was feared and that's a good thing.
3. If the numbers are better than was expected, that should mean that we can open up the economy more quickly. That, too, is a good thing.
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