There was widespread testing done in a homeless shelter in Massachusetts this past week. Over a third of the hundreds tested showed positive for the virus. None had any symptoms, though. In the four days since the tests, only one person has developed symptom.
Think about that. It's another of those instances where tests show that the level of infection is much, much higher than was previously thought to be the case.
This test result was confirmed in another test in MA. This time people were selected in a small city near Boston at random and given blood tests to determine if they have the antibodies that indicate prior infection by the virus. Anyone who tests positive in that test either currently has the virus in his or her system or was previously infected and is now cured. This randomly selected group was found to include 28% with the antibodies.
These are both small scale tests, but if they accurately reflect the true level of infection, they are of amazing importance.
1. If 30% or so of Americans have been infected by the virus, then social distancing has been a failure. It didn't stop the spread of the virus. It also means that it is no longer necessary and can end NOW. Someone who is in a high risk group and who tests negative for the antibodies can still isolate themselves, but the average person can go back to work or school. There's no point to keeping the economy shut down if the virus is spreading anyway.
2. Again, if 30 % have been infected, then the mortality rate is very low. 30% of the US population is 100 million people. Even with 40,000 deaths, that means that only 1 out of every 2500 people who get infected have died. That's much less than the flu. It's not a reason to shut down the country.
3. Finally, if 30% have already been infected, then we are well on our way towards developing herd immunity, the point where the virus stops spreading because so many of its targets are immune.
Look, I'm not saying that 30% have actually been infected, but these two small tests would indicate that. There needs to be immediate widespread testing to get the actual numbers here. We may find that corona virus is an extremely contagious virus that rarely causes symptoms and even more rarely causes death. It could change everything we are doing with regard to the illness.
Think about that. It's another of those instances where tests show that the level of infection is much, much higher than was previously thought to be the case.
This test result was confirmed in another test in MA. This time people were selected in a small city near Boston at random and given blood tests to determine if they have the antibodies that indicate prior infection by the virus. Anyone who tests positive in that test either currently has the virus in his or her system or was previously infected and is now cured. This randomly selected group was found to include 28% with the antibodies.
These are both small scale tests, but if they accurately reflect the true level of infection, they are of amazing importance.
1. If 30% or so of Americans have been infected by the virus, then social distancing has been a failure. It didn't stop the spread of the virus. It also means that it is no longer necessary and can end NOW. Someone who is in a high risk group and who tests negative for the antibodies can still isolate themselves, but the average person can go back to work or school. There's no point to keeping the economy shut down if the virus is spreading anyway.
2. Again, if 30 % have been infected, then the mortality rate is very low. 30% of the US population is 100 million people. Even with 40,000 deaths, that means that only 1 out of every 2500 people who get infected have died. That's much less than the flu. It's not a reason to shut down the country.
3. Finally, if 30% have already been infected, then we are well on our way towards developing herd immunity, the point where the virus stops spreading because so many of its targets are immune.
Look, I'm not saying that 30% have actually been infected, but these two small tests would indicate that. There needs to be immediate widespread testing to get the actual numbers here. We may find that corona virus is an extremely contagious virus that rarely causes symptoms and even more rarely causes death. It could change everything we are doing with regard to the illness.
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