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Friday, April 24, 2020

The Emerging Truth -- We Need to Change Our Response

According to current numbers, the mortality rate from the corona virus for people over the age of 80 is more than 400 times that rate for people under 40.  These figures change over time, but there have been enough cases so that these results should indicate where the final figures come out.  Even comparing those in their 80s with those in their 70s, the mortality rate is almost 5 times higher for the older group.  Sixty year olds have a mortality rate from the disease that is about one-twentieth as high as for those over 80.  For those in their 50s and below, the mortality rate is below one hundredth of a percent.  That's essentially non-existent.  If you take out those under 60 with comorbidities, the death rate for this younger group approaches zero.

What this means is that as a society we should be pointing towards keeping the vulnerable safe.  That means that the old and infirm should be self isolating at home.  It also means that the rest of us should not be staying home.  The best way to beat the virus would be for the vast bulk of America to contract the disease and then beat it.  It would mean we would have "herd immunity" so that the old and infirm would have no one left from whom they could get the illness.

Look, there is no question that there will be some cases of younger people who will die from the disease.  That doesn't change anything.  No matter what we do, there will still be people who will die.  The question we need to consider is this:  what way forward will result in the fewest deaths overall?  Keeping deaths to a minimum has to be the goal.  Right now, that goal seems to require that we change our response to the virus.

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