According to a pair of German doctors, only about 6% of all corona virus cases are being detected. They reported their conclusions in an article in medical journal The Lancet. The detection level varies by country with the level of testing being done. According to these two doctors, it is the percentage of the cases being discovered which accounts for the wide variations in mortality rates seen in different countries. In Italy, for example, something like 10% of virus patients die while in the USA it is only about a quarter of that percentage.
The doctors hypothesize that the undiscovered cases are either without symptoms or with only very mild symptoms so that the people involved do not get tested.
While we have no real way currently to determine if these conclusions are correct, it would be profoundly important if the Germans' conclusions are correct. Just consider this: right now there are about 430,000 total cases in the USA. If this is just 6% of the actual number of infections, then there have actually been about 7,200,000 cases across the USA. That would mean that a substantial number of people have already built up immunity to the virus due to prior infection. In places like New York where there are so many cases, it would mean that something like 30% of the people in New York City have already had the virus. It also lowers the mortality rate from the virus to something like one person in one thousand infected.
Let's assume for a moment that these doctors are correct. That means the following:
1. All the efforts to slow the spread of the virus have NOT worked. It spread too far too quickly for these efforts to make much difference.
2. The number of people at risk is actually much lower than previously thought. After all, if over seven million Americans have had the virus, then a great many older people including many with other conditions have been infected and survived with no adverse consequences.
3. We might as well open up the economy right now. If there are seven plus million people infected, there is almost no way to stop the further spread. And if the mortality rate is so low, then there is no point in destroying the economy in a futile effort to stop the spread.
This is not a minor issue. The medical professionals need to complete the anti-body tests ASAP. Then there ought to be random testing of large populations in places like New York to see how many of the supposedly uninfected really already had the disease. The results could change the future course of how we deal with this pandemic.
The doctors hypothesize that the undiscovered cases are either without symptoms or with only very mild symptoms so that the people involved do not get tested.
While we have no real way currently to determine if these conclusions are correct, it would be profoundly important if the Germans' conclusions are correct. Just consider this: right now there are about 430,000 total cases in the USA. If this is just 6% of the actual number of infections, then there have actually been about 7,200,000 cases across the USA. That would mean that a substantial number of people have already built up immunity to the virus due to prior infection. In places like New York where there are so many cases, it would mean that something like 30% of the people in New York City have already had the virus. It also lowers the mortality rate from the virus to something like one person in one thousand infected.
Let's assume for a moment that these doctors are correct. That means the following:
1. All the efforts to slow the spread of the virus have NOT worked. It spread too far too quickly for these efforts to make much difference.
2. The number of people at risk is actually much lower than previously thought. After all, if over seven million Americans have had the virus, then a great many older people including many with other conditions have been infected and survived with no adverse consequences.
3. We might as well open up the economy right now. If there are seven plus million people infected, there is almost no way to stop the further spread. And if the mortality rate is so low, then there is no point in destroying the economy in a futile effort to stop the spread.
This is not a minor issue. The medical professionals need to complete the anti-body tests ASAP. Then there ought to be random testing of large populations in places like New York to see how many of the supposedly uninfected really already had the disease. The results could change the future course of how we deal with this pandemic.
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