NY Governor Cuomo announced today the results of further testing for antibodies generated by the corona virus. Those who test positive are people who have contracted the virus more than a few days earlier. It is unknown how quickly the antibodies show up in the bloodstream, but it would be at least two or three days following infection at the earliest. These antibody tests tell us who has had the virus even if he or she had no symptoms of infection.
The results announce by Cuomo for New York City were that 25% of those tested were positive for having the antibodies. This is a hugely important number.
Just think what this means:
1. There are 8.4 million people in New York City. If 25% have had the virus, that means that 2.1 million people have been infected.
2. To date, testing for the virus has revealed 160,000 cases in the city. That would indicate that there have been just under two million cases for which people either had no symptoms or only very mild symptoms insufficient to lead to a test.
3. To date, there have been 17,500 deaths attributed to the virus in New York City. If the number of infections has actually been 2.1 million (as indicated by the antibody tests), then the mortality rate is under 1% and not the 11% currently announced in the media. A disease that kills 8 out our of a thousand people infected is not a good thing, but it is a hell of a lot better than one that kills 110 out of 1000.
4. Despite all the social distancing and closed businesses, fully one-quarter of New York's people have had the virus. We don't know how many of those who tested positive have active cases (and remain contagious), but it has to be a substantial number. The first batch of antibody testing last week showed 20% positive in the city, so another 5% were added to the total in just one week.
5. Add in the fact that over 90% of those who have died in New York City are over 70, and most of the rest have comorbidities, and it becomes clear that there is no need for people who are not at high risk to stay home and away from work. Many of these folks have already had the virus anyway.
It's infuriating to watch politicians congratulating Americans for pushing down the curve by self isolation when the antibody tests show that didn't actually happen to a large extent. Instead of talking about more of the same, the discussion ought to be setting up new guidelines that will protect high risk populations while letting the rest of the country get our economy moving again.
The results announce by Cuomo for New York City were that 25% of those tested were positive for having the antibodies. This is a hugely important number.
Just think what this means:
1. There are 8.4 million people in New York City. If 25% have had the virus, that means that 2.1 million people have been infected.
2. To date, testing for the virus has revealed 160,000 cases in the city. That would indicate that there have been just under two million cases for which people either had no symptoms or only very mild symptoms insufficient to lead to a test.
3. To date, there have been 17,500 deaths attributed to the virus in New York City. If the number of infections has actually been 2.1 million (as indicated by the antibody tests), then the mortality rate is under 1% and not the 11% currently announced in the media. A disease that kills 8 out our of a thousand people infected is not a good thing, but it is a hell of a lot better than one that kills 110 out of 1000.
4. Despite all the social distancing and closed businesses, fully one-quarter of New York's people have had the virus. We don't know how many of those who tested positive have active cases (and remain contagious), but it has to be a substantial number. The first batch of antibody testing last week showed 20% positive in the city, so another 5% were added to the total in just one week.
5. Add in the fact that over 90% of those who have died in New York City are over 70, and most of the rest have comorbidities, and it becomes clear that there is no need for people who are not at high risk to stay home and away from work. Many of these folks have already had the virus anyway.
It's infuriating to watch politicians congratulating Americans for pushing down the curve by self isolation when the antibody tests show that didn't actually happen to a large extent. Instead of talking about more of the same, the discussion ought to be setting up new guidelines that will protect high risk populations while letting the rest of the country get our economy moving again.
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