NY governor Cuomo released preliminary results for widespread antibody testing across New York state. Over 3000 people selected at random were tested for the antibodies. 13.9% of those tested showed positive results, meaning they had been infected by the virus. That translates to 2.7 million people statewide who have already had the corona virus. The number showing a previous infection is concentrated in New York City with 43% of those testing positive. In the NYC suburbs, the results showed about another 26% of those who tested positive for the antibodies.
What does this mean?
1. Social distancing has not worked to stop the spread of the virus. Something over 20% of the people in New York City are testing positive. If social distancing had worked, to stop the virus from spreading, that number should have been much, much lower. On the other hand, social distancing may have slowed the spread of the virus. Still, with so many unsuspected cases circulating around New York City, the virus will continue to spread; that is a given.
2. The death rate from the virus is much lower than previously thought. If 2.7 million people have been infected, then less than one half of one percent of those infected have died. That's comparable to a bad flu.
3. Given the low death rate, the best way to end the threat from the virus would be to tell those at high risk from the virus (namely those over 65 and those with multiple comorbidities) to stay at home in isolation while at the same time letting everyone else go back to work. In other words, reopen the state for all but those most at risk from the virus. This should let the virus speed its way through infecting most of the rest of the people in the state. At that point, we could see the development of the so-called herd immunity. Once 70% of the people in an area have been infected, it will become very difficult for the virus to spread any further. A few weeks after that, the virus will essentially disappear. At that point, those at highest risk can come out of quarantine and return to regular life. This would end the virus quickly.
Of course, there will be a very few people who will die from the virus were we to follow this course. I say very few, because the rate of death among those under 65 is about 0.1%. If you have people under 65 with comorbidities sheltering in place, then the death rate for the remainder will be still much less, something like 1 in 10,000 who will die. While any deaths are a tragedy, these are the sorts of numbers which do not justify shutting down the state further.
Remember, if we keep the state shut down, the chances are that many more people in the high risk groups will eventually catch the virus. That is because the virus will continue to circulate due to the lack of herd immunity. The resulting death levels will be far higher than that resulting from opening up for non-high-risk groups.
What does this mean?
1. Social distancing has not worked to stop the spread of the virus. Something over 20% of the people in New York City are testing positive. If social distancing had worked, to stop the virus from spreading, that number should have been much, much lower. On the other hand, social distancing may have slowed the spread of the virus. Still, with so many unsuspected cases circulating around New York City, the virus will continue to spread; that is a given.
2. The death rate from the virus is much lower than previously thought. If 2.7 million people have been infected, then less than one half of one percent of those infected have died. That's comparable to a bad flu.
3. Given the low death rate, the best way to end the threat from the virus would be to tell those at high risk from the virus (namely those over 65 and those with multiple comorbidities) to stay at home in isolation while at the same time letting everyone else go back to work. In other words, reopen the state for all but those most at risk from the virus. This should let the virus speed its way through infecting most of the rest of the people in the state. At that point, we could see the development of the so-called herd immunity. Once 70% of the people in an area have been infected, it will become very difficult for the virus to spread any further. A few weeks after that, the virus will essentially disappear. At that point, those at highest risk can come out of quarantine and return to regular life. This would end the virus quickly.
Of course, there will be a very few people who will die from the virus were we to follow this course. I say very few, because the rate of death among those under 65 is about 0.1%. If you have people under 65 with comorbidities sheltering in place, then the death rate for the remainder will be still much less, something like 1 in 10,000 who will die. While any deaths are a tragedy, these are the sorts of numbers which do not justify shutting down the state further.
Remember, if we keep the state shut down, the chances are that many more people in the high risk groups will eventually catch the virus. That is because the virus will continue to circulate due to the lack of herd immunity. The resulting death levels will be far higher than that resulting from opening up for non-high-risk groups.
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