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Saturday, April 18, 2020

Confirmation of Seasonality?

The Department of Homeland Security released information about a large study that shows that the corona virus decays much more quickly at higher temperatures and higher humidity.  Direct sunlight was particularly effective in destroying the virus. 

This is extremely significant.  It means that this virus should operate in much the same way as the flu virus, namely it should essentially disappear during the summer.  As the weather gets warmer and the humidity rises, it will become much harder for the virus to spread because most of the virus will be destroyed by those temperatures and humidity.  Further, as the number of sunny days increases, the added effect of direct sunlight on the virus will further hamper the spread.

This effect may actually explain the difference in the hot spot outbreak in New York and New Orleans.  The virus spread in the New York area during the winter.  In New Orleans, though, the big explosion of cases came at a point when it was already warmer.  It may be that the arrival of Spring weather in NOLA was the reason why the hotspot there fizzled out while the New York hotspot went on to spread to far.

This is just one study, but if the virus is truly seasonal, this is wonderful news.  

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