Yesterday, the number of new cases of the corona virus hit an all time high in the USA. There were just over 36,000 new cases where people tested positive for the virus. That's the tenth day in April when new cases exceeded 30,000. Since we have been told that we are seeing the "light at the end of the tunnel" and that the country can reopen, is this a sign that maybe things are going the wrong way? Strangely, the higher number of cases is not actually a bad sign. Let me explain:
1. The number of tests being administered has exploded upwards. For the last three days, the average number of tests has been 242,000 per day. Prior to that time, the most tests ever administered in one day was 167,000.
2. With a 50% increase in the number of tests, there would almost certainly be an increase in the number of people who test positive. There are many folks who have no or few symptoms who test positive. These are people who haven't been included in the group tested in the past. What has changed is that widespread testing of all first responders and medical staffs are being introduced across the country. These are the very people who have had the greatest exposure to the virus, so one would expect to pick up asymptomatic cases.
3. A different way to look at the results is that over the last three days, 12.4% of those tested have come back positive for the virus. In the three days prior to that, the percentage positive results was 17.4%.
Most likely, the slightly higher number of new cases is the result of the enormous increase in testing and the increased coverage of the tests. As we get new results in the coming days, we will be able to see if this is correct.
1. The number of tests being administered has exploded upwards. For the last three days, the average number of tests has been 242,000 per day. Prior to that time, the most tests ever administered in one day was 167,000.
2. With a 50% increase in the number of tests, there would almost certainly be an increase in the number of people who test positive. There are many folks who have no or few symptoms who test positive. These are people who haven't been included in the group tested in the past. What has changed is that widespread testing of all first responders and medical staffs are being introduced across the country. These are the very people who have had the greatest exposure to the virus, so one would expect to pick up asymptomatic cases.
3. A different way to look at the results is that over the last three days, 12.4% of those tested have come back positive for the virus. In the three days prior to that, the percentage positive results was 17.4%.
Most likely, the slightly higher number of new cases is the result of the enormous increase in testing and the increased coverage of the tests. As we get new results in the coming days, we will be able to see if this is correct.
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