The 20th Congressional District of California should be an easy seat for the Democrats to hold. It has been represented by a Democrat since 1993, so all during the Republican ascendancy that began in 1994, the Democrats held control. In the last election, the Democrat got 75% of the vote. The district is only 21.4% white according to the 2000 census. Blacks make up 7.2% and Hispanics are 63% of the population. since we are told over and over by the media that Republicans are anti-Hispanic, the re-election of the sitting Democrat should be a sure thing. that is why the latest polls is such a shocker. In the poll, Congressman Costa is at 48% and his Republican opponent, Andy Vidak, a white non-hispanic is at 46%. The margin is well within the margin of error of the poll.
How can it be that Hispanics are siding with a non-Hispanic Republican against a Hispanic Democrat? The mainstream media would tell you that this is not possible. After all, according to the media Hispanics only care about illegal immigration policies and keeping the Republicans out of power. Of course, the truth is something different. Indeed, if Republicans can win the Hispanic vote here, or even come close, it says a great deal about the viability of other Democrats in states like Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about this latest poll is this: None of the major groups predicting House races had this as a toss up. Larry Sabato did not even rate this seat as being in play. RCP has it down as likely Democrat, their strongest ranking. charlie cook says the seat leans to the Democrats. But the poll says it is a tie.
It will be interesting to see who wins here. If the Democrats lose a seat like this, they could be looking at a net loss close to 100 seats.
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