The coming Avalanche -- New York Senate

Perhaps the most astounding poll of the year was released this morning. It shows NY appointed senator Gillibrand ahead of her Republican rival DioGuardi by 1%. That's right, only one percent. In other words, the New York senate seat is very much in play. So far this year, other than Dick Morris, there has not been a single pundit who has predicted a close contest in New York. Quite the contrary has been true. If DioGuardi wins, it will be a political earthquake equivalent to Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts earlier this year.

Right now, there are three sure Republican pickups: North Dakota, Arkansas, and Indiana. It would take a miracle for the Democrats to retain those seats. Then there are the races in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin where the Republican candidate has moved cnsistently ahead by a margin close to 10%. These seem very likely to be GOP pickups as well. Then we have the races in California, Nevada, West Viginia, Washington, and Illinois where the races are close with the Republican often leading. Then there are Delaware, Connecticut and New York which are also in play. Oregon was close for a while, but Ron Wyden seems to have moved back out into a lead. In other words, there are six very likely Republican pickups in the Senate and four tossups. To these one must add another three seats that could easily go for the GOP. If the Republicans win four of these final nine seats, they take control of the Senate. Indeed, if Republican turnout is actually much heavier than that of the Democrats (something that all the polls now indicate), it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the GOP could pickup all of these seats for a 55 vote Senate majority. That outcome is not very likely, but right now, it seems to be an even bet that the GOP will get to 51 seats and control.

The most amazing thing about these results is this: Of the senators who are not up for re-election this time, the Democrats have a 40 to 24 vote majority. That means that if the Republicans win this big in this cycle, it will probably give them an easy way to keep control of the Senate for six years. While nothing is certain in politics (just look at this year), there is no question that the Democrats must be morose at this point.