The candidates for governor of New Hampshire were finalized with last Tuesday's primary in that state. Governor Lynch, a Democrat, is running against Republican John Stephen. Prior to the primary, all of the polls pointed to an easy re-election for Lynch. The closest poll had shown Lynch 11% ahead, and some had shown a margin of more than 20%. Now comes the latest poll, the only one that follows the primary. This one has the race at 48% to 46% with Lynch still ahead. In short, it is an earthquake, and the electorate has shifted.
It is possible that this poll is just reflecting the publicity that follows the primary and the race will shift back towards Lynch. It is also possible, however, that the primary got New Hampshire voters to pay attention to the race and that they are now making their true views heard. Right now, my guess is that the Lynch camp must be extremely nervous. But then again, 2010 is not a good year to be a Democrat -- in any state.
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