It is not easy to see where close house races are going to end up. there are many fewer polls done for House races and there are many more seats at stake. Nevertheless, the trend seems clear: the Democrats are sinking while the GOP is rising. Perhaps the best barometer to use is the Real Clear Politics summary of House seats. this is a very inexact list of contested House seats which are divided into those that are likely or leaning to one party and those which are called tossups. Over the last three weeks, the number of seats at least leaning Democratic has gone down by about 5% from just over 200 to just over 190. Meanwhile, the number of seats that are at least leaning Republican has risen from just over 200 to 207. There are a large number of toss up seats, but nearaly every one is held now by a Democrat.
The RCP ratings are frequently incorrect in my view, but the represent a good faith attempt to reflect the latest polling and historical data. the What they show is that more and more Democrat seats are coming into play. The possibility of an enormous landslide keeps growing. Unless the Democrats actually find an issue to run on, it looks like we may soon have more Republicans in the House than at any time in the last 80 years.
Much could still happen to change this, but that would require some sort of coherent electoral strategy from the Democrats, and this seems to be lacking so far. They seem to be approaching the election the same way that the dealt with healthcare: they do not care what the people think or want.
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