The seventeenth district of Illionois is a long time stronghold of the Democrats. It has been represented by a Democrat in Congress for the last 28 years. Gore and Kerry both carried the district by comfortable margins. In 2008, Obama beat McCain there by 14%. The district was even designed by the Democrats in control in Springfield to favor the Democrats to the greatest extent possible. That is why the latest poll is such a shocker. Incumbent Democrat Phil Hare is losing to his little known Republican opponent Bobby Schilling by a margin of 41 to 38%. Thus, not only is the Republican ahead, but the Democrat incumbent is polling below 40%. Strange things can happen in politics, but barring an extraordinary event, this race is over and the Republicans have taken the seat.
This is just one of the many Democrat seats that are slipping away to the Republicans. More are revealed each day. Interestingly, Illinois 17 is not even included among the list of seats in play by Larry Sabato on his crystal ball web site; neither does the electionprojection.com. Real Clear Politics has now moved the race to the toss up category, but that is just being kind to the Democrat.
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