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Friday, September 10, 2010

Maine 1 and 2 and Iowa 1, 2 and 3 and the avalanche

In the last two days, there have been polls out in three Iowa House districts (1,2, and 3) and the two in Maine. In each district, there is currently a Democrat in office. In each district, however, except for Iowa 1, the incumbent polls below 50%, and in some cases as low as 45%. Even though the Democrats are ahead in each of these polls, the low numbers for the incumbent are a clear danger sign. with the exception of one district in Iowa that makes it onto Charlie Cook's list of districts in play, none of these seats is on anyone's radar. That is truly shocking. Seats that no one is even look at right now are clearly in play. Sure, there is a current advantage for the Democrats, but in a national wave, especially one with a highly motivated Republican base against a lethargic Democrat base, these seats could easily swing to the GOP. If even half of these seats went to the Republicans, it would signal a change of an enormous number of seats across the country, one that would not just shift control, but one that would wipe out nearly all of the Democrats in Washington who come from two party areas. Sure, there would still be the seats of the totally Democrat districts, but there would not be much more. The Democrats would be reduced to representing just minority, urban and Coastal liberal areas.

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