E.J.Dionne and the Democrats Northeast Firewall

In an column today, E.J.Dionne makes the point that the Democrats will hold the House due to their North East firewall. Supposedly, Republicans cannot win in New England, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. As they would say on SNL, "Really?" Dionne seems to be living in a world where wishful thinking substitutes for reason. Right now, there are 14 seats currently held by Democrats that are listed as leaning Republican, likely Republican or toss up in the Real Clear Politics summary. There are another 11 that are listed as leaning Democrat. If those listed as leaning go 75% towards the favored party and the toss ups split down the middle, the GOP will pick up 14 seats in the Northeast. That is more than one-third of the total needed to take control of the House. Moreover, if there is truly a wave this year, the GOP will do better than that. Indeed, if anything, the RCP rankings underplay the GOP strength. A good example is the Tenth district of Pennsylvania. This district which covers the northeast corner of the state has been the subject of two public polls. In both, the Republican has led, although those leads have varied between 4 and 15%. The key is not the lead, however. The principal point is that in both polls, the incumbent congressman Chris Carney has never topped 37% of the vote. Results like that are the kiss of death for an incumbent. RCP lists this as a toss up however. It is not. Right now, it has to be listed as leans Republican at a minimum.

For what it is worth, Charlie Cook lists 10 seats as toss up or better for the Republicans in the area and 9 as lean Democrat. Since Cook never lists an incumbent as worse than toss up, the calculation cannot be done the same way as with the RCP data, but the data still indicates a pickup of at least 11 seats for the GOP.

My own prediction is that the Republicans at a minimum will pick up one seat in Maine, two in New Hampshire, one in Massachusetts, one in Connecticut, one in New Jersey, three in New York and five in Pennsylvania for a total of 14. There are another six potential wins for the GOP as well which could bring the total to 20 if things all go great for the Republicans.