The Gallup numbers

For much of the last few months, the Gallup polling numbers for the generic ballot quesiton have jumped all over the place. When asked whether they would prefer to vote for the unnamed Republican or the unnamed Democrat, registered voters have had margins as high as 10% for the Republicans and almost as high for the Democrats. In recent days, there has been much talk about the possibility that the Republicans have peaked and that the Democrats are on the way back. So now, Gallup has come out with the first of its polls of likely voters on the generic ballot question. For the first time, Gallup is also setting forth two sets of numbers, one for a high turnout model and one for a lower turnout model. The numbers are startling. In a low turnout election, Gallup now has the Republicans ahead by 18%, that's correct 18%! Even in a high turnout election, Gallup has the Republicans ahead by 13%. these are numbers that go way beyond a landslide. Were the Republicans to win the vote by 18%, they would pick up at least 100 seats from the Democrats, more than any party has gained in modern history.

Of course, since it is Gallup, we may see next week that the Democrats are ahead. The one constant with Gallup seems to be that nothing is constant.