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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Michael Barone Is Right

One of the most knowledgeable political commentators around is Michael Barone.  Today, he is out with a column in which he announces that 2014 is a GOP wave election and that the only question is how big the wave will be.  Barone says that all the back and forth among commentators as to whether or not we are seeing a "wave" is silly.  If one takes a step back and looks at where we are, the result is obvious.  And you know, he's right!

First of all, Republicans are on track to have their highest number of seats in the House in 70 years.  That is not going to be a pick up of more than 60 seats like in 2010, but a duplication of that result would be impossible given the number of seats the GOP already holds.

Second, the GOP is likely to pick up six or more seats in the Senate and to take control of that body after eight years of Democrat control.  There have been few elections in American history in which one party or the other picked up that many seats in the Senate.

Third, right now it looks like Republicans will keep an advantage among state governors of 30 to 20 over the Democrats.  That is no change, but it still means that 60% of the governors come from the GOP.

These will be great results for the Republicans if they come to pass.  Indeed, they put the lie to the constrant refrain about how demographics made the GOP a permanent minority party after 2008.  Remember that one? 




 

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