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Sunday, October 19, 2014

Hard To Believe

John Kerry used to be the dumbest member of the US Senate.  Now he is the dumbest Secretary of State in living memory.  Just think how many times Kerry's mouth has moved faster than his brain.  Actually, let me rephrase that; think how many times Kerry's mouth moved without significant input from rational thought of any sort.  The latest such statement from Kerry came Friday when he said that the failure to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict was fueling recruitment for ISIS.

The Secretary of State is supposed to understand the international situation or at least to come close to understanding it.  Kerry seems to be living in a delusion.  ISIS is fighting in Syria and Iraq.  In Syria, ISIS arose because the regime of Bashir al Assad was killing Sunnis on a non-stop basis.  ISIS began fighting against the Shiite terrorism of Assad.  It grew in Syria fighting Assad's terrorist army.  Remember, the Assad forces have killed nearly 200,000 people in the last three years.  The Sunnis in Syria who are the main participants in ISIS in that country are not fighting because of perceived delays in the Palestinians reaching peace with Israel; they have more immediate concerns.  In Iraq, the ISIS fighters are mainly Sunnis who have been mistreated by the Shiite government in Baghdad.  Those people do not care about the Palestinians; the fight is much more localized.

ISIS is a group of crazies.  They have taken a bizarre religious outlook and converted it into an army of death.  The people they are killing, however, are not Israelis.  ISIS is killing the Shiites, Christians and Yazidis along with those Sunnis who do not accept the religion of death.  In many ways, ISIS is an equal opportunity bunch of murderers; they kill everyone who is not them.  If Israel and the Palestinians made peace today, ISIS would still be out there killing tomorrow.  In fact, if there were peace between Israel and the Arabs, the only likely change for ISIS is that Palestinians would go higher on the list of those to be murdered.

The real truth is one that has escaped Kerry's notice.  The biggest recruiting tool for ISIS at this point is its success in defeating the Iraqi army and its perceived American friends.  Al Qaeda fought against the USA and its "success" was mostly the fact that it was not entirely wiped out.  ISIS is the first Sunni terror group that has actually won significant battles against an American backed force.  Many of the recruits to ISIS want to be part of that success.  The reality is that it is the American abandonment of Iraq that allowed this to happen.  President Obama pulled out American forces while leaving the appearance that we were still supporting them.  In that way, for millions around the world, the defeat of the Iraqi army is considered the defeat of US forces.  It is not such a defeat in reality, but that does not matter.  The perception is that it is such a defeat.

Even the current desultory American air campaign adds to this perception.  Obama and Kerry say that we are engaged in an air campaign to destroy ISIS, but then we hit ISIS with the equivalent of a slingshot rather than a howitzer.  The images of American planes circling overhead and dropping a few bombs are on the world's TV screens, but the ISIS forces continue to advance in many areas.  Obama and Kerry literally hand this major victory to ISIS by not bothering to use the military force of the USA which could crush ISIS.  This empowerment of ISIS is the big recruiting tool for the terrorists.  They tell potential recruits to come and join the religious battle which is holding off and defeating the world's only superpower.  Surely, God must be on their side.  It is a compelling argument for a certain type of person.

For many decades, the standard thinking in much of the Western world has been that solving the Arab-Israeli dispute is central to there being peace across the Middle East.  The events since 9-11 have made clear that this idea is wrong.  Despite the actual facts, the idea has remained a mainstay in liberal academic circles.  The professors in the faculty lounge who have the luxury of ignoring the actual facts still pontificate to each other about how to bring peace to the area.  Kerry has never realized that the reality is something quite different.  The problem, of course, is that Kerry is not sitting in Cambridge, Massachusetts sipping sherry at the faculty lounge; he is the Secretary of State.  He ought to know better.  If America wants to put a crimp in the recruiting efforts by ISIS, the best way is to unleash the full force of the US Air Force on ISIS.  If there were 1000 sorties each day against ISIS targets for the next two months, the resulting disaster for the ISIS forces would speak much louder than any speech by Obama.  It would put an end to ISIS as a success story.  If the USA armed the Kurds with better weapons so that they could move forward against the ISIS thugs, that would add to the message.  These moves, however, require a real commitment to victory over ISIS.  Obama's faux campaign designed to look good for the November elections just won't do that.




 

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