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Sunday, October 12, 2014

The Next Battlefield

The Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Ayn al Arab (also known as Kobani) are still holding on.  Despite heavy odds against them, the Kurds hold the northern and western parts of the city.  ISIS fighters have better weapons and bigger numbers than the Kurds.  There are sporadic American air strikes on ISIS positions, but these are not enough to turn the tide of battle.  Indeed, on Saturday, there were only five sorties in the region.

What is amazing at the moment, however, is the behavior of the Turks.  Turkey has army units on the border, less than a mile from the fighting.  There are tanks and other heavy weapons that the Turks could deploy.  The Turkish army, however, is focused not on defeating ISIS, but rather on making sure that no one from Turkey goes across the border to join in the fight.  Literally thousands of Kurds who want to go join in the battle are being prevented by the Turks from doing so.  The Turks are forcing all of these people to stand on the hills by the border and watch as ISIS moves forward slowly through the city of Ayn al Arab.

The president of Turkey most likely believes that his moves are allowing ISIS to destroy the Kurdish resistance fighters that want to form a Kurdish state out of parts of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran.  There was a three decade long uprising in parts of Turkey as the government fought the Kurds who sought independence.  The Turkish government is only too happy to see the Kurdish fighters get killed.

One likely outcome of the battle between ISIS and the Kurds in Ayn al Arab, however, is that Turkey will soon rejoin the battle.  The level of anger among the Kurds who are watching the Turks abandon those in Ayn al Arab to their fate is extremely high.  It well may be that once the city falls, there may be fighting that breaks out across Turkey as the Kurds respond to the inaction of the government.  Just when the battlefield in the Middle East seemed impossibly confused, it will get worse.  In Iraq, the Kurds will be America's allies, but they will be at loggerheads with the Baghdad government which is also our ally.  In Syria, the Kurds will be America's allies, but the Kurdish group that operates there will be supporting other Kurds who will be battling against the Turks who are nominally America's ally.  At least we know that ISIS will be our enemy everywhere.

 


 

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