For forty years, the focal point of the Cold War was Germany. Armies faced each other along the border between East and West Germany. West Berlin was an island of freedom in a Communist state. Any conventional war would have rolled over the German countryside first. Then the Cold War ended, and Germany was reunited. The modern Germany is the most powerful state in the EU.
That brings me to two bits of news about Germany that are worth discussing.
First, President Trump just appointed Richard Grenell as US ambassador to Germany. It's a great choice. Grenell is the former spokesman for the US mission to the UN. He has been a foreign policy advisor to a number of political campaigns. As anyone who has seen him on TV knows, he is also a rather smart and knowledgeable guy.
Second, the Germans are voting in a national election in a few weeks. The latest polls show the CDU/CSU party of Chancellor Angela Merkel likely to win a big victory. The SPD socialists are something like 18 to 20 % points behind Merkel's party. The Greens, the Free Democrats, The Left and the AfD are all bunched at like 8-9% of the vote. If these numbers hold, it will be significant because any party that gets over 5% of the vote gets seat in the legislature. That would put all four of the minor parties back in the legislature. Roughly half of the seats are awarded based upon the national percentage of the vote with the other half going to the local winner. Essentially all of the local winners will either go to Merkel's party or the socialists. If each of the small four parties gets about 8% of the vote, they will hold about 4% of the seats each. That leaves just 82% for the bigger two parties. It also makes it difficult for Merkel's party to get an absolute majority by itself. There will most likely be a coalition between the parties of some sort needed to form a government.
That brings me to two bits of news about Germany that are worth discussing.
First, President Trump just appointed Richard Grenell as US ambassador to Germany. It's a great choice. Grenell is the former spokesman for the US mission to the UN. He has been a foreign policy advisor to a number of political campaigns. As anyone who has seen him on TV knows, he is also a rather smart and knowledgeable guy.
Second, the Germans are voting in a national election in a few weeks. The latest polls show the CDU/CSU party of Chancellor Angela Merkel likely to win a big victory. The SPD socialists are something like 18 to 20 % points behind Merkel's party. The Greens, the Free Democrats, The Left and the AfD are all bunched at like 8-9% of the vote. If these numbers hold, it will be significant because any party that gets over 5% of the vote gets seat in the legislature. That would put all four of the minor parties back in the legislature. Roughly half of the seats are awarded based upon the national percentage of the vote with the other half going to the local winner. Essentially all of the local winners will either go to Merkel's party or the socialists. If each of the small four parties gets about 8% of the vote, they will hold about 4% of the seats each. That leaves just 82% for the bigger two parties. It also makes it difficult for Merkel's party to get an absolute majority by itself. There will most likely be a coalition between the parties of some sort needed to form a government.
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