The results of the independence referendum in Kurdish areas in Iraq are not even final, and the region's neighbors are already threatening war. Preliminary results show a very heavy turnout with over 90% voting in favor of independence for the Kurds. Here's a short summary of the responses from Turkey, Iran and Iraq.
Turkey's president threatened to enforce a total blockade against the Kurds. He says that the Kurds will not be protected by "waiving Israeli flags." Turkey will shut down the pipeline that moves the oil produced in the Kurdish region and bring the Kurds to their knees.
It's sad that Turkey feels compelled to throw anti-Israeli nonsense into its attack on an independent Kurdish state, but not all that surprising. Remember over a quarter of the population of Turkey is Kurdish, so Ankara fears that these people will want to take part of Turkey and join it with the Kurdish state.
Iran has denounced the Kurdish independence movement as a "Zionist plot". The Ayatollah said that Muslim nations will not allow the creation of a "second Israel" in their midst. Of course, the Kurds are Muslims, so what the Ayatollah has said is complete nonsense. In Iran, there are also substantial Kurdish populations who could want to join with a free Kurdistan.
The Iraqi government in Baghdad has denounced the Kurdish vote. Indeed, the central government gave the Kurdish authorities until this weekend to turn over control of all airports in the Kurdish region to the central authorities. There is an unspoken threat of violence towards the Kurds by the Iraqi army. Of course, having seen the fighting prowess of the Iraqis and the Kurdish forces during the fighting with ISIS, it does not seem like much of a threat coming from Baghdad.
Nevertheless, it does seem as if by next week we could see fighting in the region with the Kurds fighting Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish forces. So that bring us to the question of the American response.
For decades, the Kurds have been the best and most consistent friends America has had in the region. We cannot forget them now that they are facing a major problem. The real questions is what would happen if the USA were to recognize an independent Kurdistan? Could American recognition and possible support be enough to keep the Turks and the Iranians from invading? Could it put a lid on the reaction of the Iraqi government? Those are questions that will have to be answered by the President. Without a doubt, the view in the State Department will be for the USA to stay out of this matter. It's hard to forget all the help the Kurds have given us even if the cold hearted diplomats think we ought to do so.
In many ways, the key here is the reaction of the Saudis and the Jordanians and other Arab countries in the region. There's no reason for them to side with the Turks or the Shiite regimes in Iran or Iraq. On the other hand, if they decide that they do not want to do anything that could redraw borders, then they could take the side of the Turks.
My preference would be for the USA to try to help with the establishment of independent Kurdistan.
Turkey's president threatened to enforce a total blockade against the Kurds. He says that the Kurds will not be protected by "waiving Israeli flags." Turkey will shut down the pipeline that moves the oil produced in the Kurdish region and bring the Kurds to their knees.
It's sad that Turkey feels compelled to throw anti-Israeli nonsense into its attack on an independent Kurdish state, but not all that surprising. Remember over a quarter of the population of Turkey is Kurdish, so Ankara fears that these people will want to take part of Turkey and join it with the Kurdish state.
Iran has denounced the Kurdish independence movement as a "Zionist plot". The Ayatollah said that Muslim nations will not allow the creation of a "second Israel" in their midst. Of course, the Kurds are Muslims, so what the Ayatollah has said is complete nonsense. In Iran, there are also substantial Kurdish populations who could want to join with a free Kurdistan.
The Iraqi government in Baghdad has denounced the Kurdish vote. Indeed, the central government gave the Kurdish authorities until this weekend to turn over control of all airports in the Kurdish region to the central authorities. There is an unspoken threat of violence towards the Kurds by the Iraqi army. Of course, having seen the fighting prowess of the Iraqis and the Kurdish forces during the fighting with ISIS, it does not seem like much of a threat coming from Baghdad.
Nevertheless, it does seem as if by next week we could see fighting in the region with the Kurds fighting Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish forces. So that bring us to the question of the American response.
For decades, the Kurds have been the best and most consistent friends America has had in the region. We cannot forget them now that they are facing a major problem. The real questions is what would happen if the USA were to recognize an independent Kurdistan? Could American recognition and possible support be enough to keep the Turks and the Iranians from invading? Could it put a lid on the reaction of the Iraqi government? Those are questions that will have to be answered by the President. Without a doubt, the view in the State Department will be for the USA to stay out of this matter. It's hard to forget all the help the Kurds have given us even if the cold hearted diplomats think we ought to do so.
In many ways, the key here is the reaction of the Saudis and the Jordanians and other Arab countries in the region. There's no reason for them to side with the Turks or the Shiite regimes in Iran or Iraq. On the other hand, if they decide that they do not want to do anything that could redraw borders, then they could take the side of the Turks.
My preference would be for the USA to try to help with the establishment of independent Kurdistan.
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