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Sunday, August 15, 2010

A new high for the silly season

In today's New York Times, Jeff Zeleny writes that the Democrats have a big advantage that they did not have in 1994 when they were swept from office. What is this great advantage you may well ask? It's simple: the Democrats know for sure that the public is angry with them and wants them out of office; this time they will not be surprised.

Being charitable, one can only call this utter nonsense. In 1994, Democrats did not realize how upset the voters were. And why was that? Because until the fall of 1994, Democrats were leading in all the polls and expected to win. Indeed, even the week before the election it was unclear that the Republicans would sweep as they did. In 2010, there is no mystery. The generic congressional polls show the Republicans up by about 4 or 5%. Since most of these polls ask questions of REgistered voters rather than likely voters, these generic polls tend to understate Republican strength. In other words, the actual lead for the GOP is more like 8-9%. Further, since midterm elections are basically about turnout, the iintensity of voters is also important. In poll after poll, Republicans are rought 20% more likely to vote than Democrats. Translating this into English, the GOP lead in the Congressional vote is way higher than 10%. This is an astounding figure and it is much higher than any result the GOP has ever achieved.

But Zeleny thinks that being that far behind and knowing it is an advantage. The Democrats willbe able to campaign and get the word out about their accomplishments in DC. Wait, it was those "accomplishments" that put the Republicans in the lead in the first place. Well, the Democrats will be able to spend more time fund raising, but they will still have no message that will sell.

The truth is that things are so bad for the Democrats that it is clear to everyone at this point. It is not an advantage except in the strange world of NY Times writers.

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