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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

The New GDP Figures

We now have the figures for the growth of the GDP in the second quarter of 2013.  According to the federal government America's economy grew at the paltry annual rate of 1.7% during April, May and June.  This is down from the 1.8% rate that, until today had been the estimate for the first quarter.  Today's report revised the first quarter number down to 1.1%, however, so the usual slant in the media is calling the terrible 1.7% figure for the second quarter an "increase".

Let's remember what we have seen in the last few months.  The first report on the first quarter growth number came out three months ago.  It showed the economy growing at about 3 percent.  That has been revised down now three times to only 1.1%.  If the second quarter suffers a similar revision, it may turn out that we are already in a recession with the economy contracting.

Government growth statistics are not supposed to change from 3 percent to 1.1 percent over the course of three months.  There are always adjustments, but usually some go up while others go down, and the magnitude of the adjustments is about 0.2 or 0.3%, not ten times that amount.  The differences are so large here that one has to wonder if the first report was intentionally inflated in order to make president Obama and the economy look better.

Nearly everyone in America realizes that Obama does not tell the truth.  Okay, we got that.  If government statistics are now going to become totally suspect, that is another terrible step towards the destruction of all trust in government.



 

 

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