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Tuesday, September 6, 2016

A Quick Polling Update

There's some good news for Donald Trump or bad news for Hillary Clinton from the recent polls.  You can decide which way you want to put it, but the result is the same.  If you look at the national polls released in the last week and average them, Hillary's lead over Trump is 0.6%.  Just three weeks ago, that number was in the area of 8%.  It's been quite a move.  The Hillary supporters in the media tell us that it is just Hillary's "convention bounce" disappearing as expected, but that's wrong.  Before both conventions when neither Trump nor Hillary had a bounce, her lead was much bigger.  Similarly, those who say that all these polls are just second-rate efforts and not the really important polls are likewise wrong.  These people say that only the five polls used to determine placement in the presidential debates count.  That's a silly position because a poll with proper methodology doesn't change if it is done under one name or another.  Nevertheless, the first of those five polls came out today; in it CNN found Trump up by 2% over Hillary.  Moreover, if you eliminate the on-line polls as these people would have us do, then the polls of the last week actually have Trump up by 0.4%.

It's been quite a bad week for Hillary Clinton.  If she ever stops coughing, she will have to try to do something about it.

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