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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Putting Brexit Into Proper Focus

The articles on Brexit all talk about how the UK is one of 28 member states of the EU.  This really does not properly explain the impact that Britain's departure will have on the rest of the EU.  Britain is the second largest economy in the EU, behind only that of Germany.  Just under 18% of the economic activity in the EU is in Britain.  In fact, the British economy is larger than the combined economies of the 20 smallest members of the EU.  Perhaps the best way to think of it is this:  if the USA lost two states, it would be reduced by roughly the same number of states as the EU is losing countries with the UK.  But consider the difference if the two states were Texas and Florida or if they were Vermont and Wyoming.  For the EU, the loss of Britain is very much like the former rather than the latter.

The British economy is part of the heart of the European economy.  Just the London financial markets alone are critical to the rest of Europe. 

But there's more.  Without the UK, the EU loses its main counterweight to Germany.  There will still be 27 countries, but the Germans will control more than a quarter of the entire EU economy.  This is not likely to make the other countries happy.  Instead, escaping German domination will likely become a theme for the other national movements that seek to leave the union.

 

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