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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Who's Next After Britain?

Which country will leave the EU next?  Will any?

We already know that there are strong moves in France and the Netherlands to exit the EU.  Marine LePen, the French right wing leader, has pledged to hold a referendum if she wins the presidency in the next election.  The Dutch have been debating the subject for a while now.  Those are two of the biggest economies in Europe; their departure after the British leave would make the EU into Germany and her satellites.

The country that would benefit most from leaving, however, is Spain.  Unemployment in Spain is around 20%.  Because the Spanish use the euro rather than their own currency, it is very hard to see costs of operation in Spain decline to the point at which they are competitive with the rest of Europe, let alone the rest of the world.  Were Spain to drop the euro and go back to the peseta, that currency could be devalued and Spain could reach an equilibrium with the rest of the world.  Spanish products would become much less expensive in world markets.  Sales would soar and employment would pick up as more and more production was needed.  Spain could be put back to work.

The Europeans really need to change their outlook after Brexit.  If Europe were to go back to its original plan of a Common Market, much would improve.  Each country could have its own currency.  Political decisions could be made independently by each country.  The only thing that would remain would be free trade among the members of the Common Market.  That would promote efficient economic growth across the continent, something that has been missing for a long time.

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