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Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Once Again, The Polls Got It Wrong

There was a primary today in Virginia.  According to the polls, there was an extremely close race among the Democrats while Republican Ed Gillespie had the GOP primary locked up.  So what happened?  In the Democrat race, it wasn't even close.  The candidate backed by the party machine won easily over the candidate of the left who was backed by Bernie Sanders and the like.  The Republican race was extremely close and is still not decided as I write this.

You may wonder how the pollsters got this election so wrong.  Most likely, those pollsters are wondering the same thing. 

What none of this tells us is who is the likely winner in November.  Oh, we've seen the match ups that the pollsters ran among various combinations of candidates, but those are the same polls that got the primary results so wrong.  Surely, as November approaches we may get poll results that tell us something.  On the other hand, if things go as they have been for the last few years, we won't have any idea who is going to win this race until the last vote is counted in November.

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