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Sunday, June 25, 2017

What is Happening On The Golan Heights

For the last two days, artillery and rockets from Syrian territory have landed in the Israeli section of the Golan Heights.  The fire supposedly is spillover from poorly aimed guns, etc. in the battle between the Assad forces, ISIS and rebel forces in Syria.  Israel, however, has a longstanding policy of responding to any shelling, missile or other attack that hits Israeli territory whether or not it is claimed to be accidental.  As a result, there was Israeli air strikes and artillery fire at military targets in the region where the fire came from.

On the first day, it was possible to believe that the Syrian attack was accidental.  When it was repeated on the second day, the likelihood of it's being the result of poor aim decreased dramatically.  Most likely, this is fire on Israel in the hopes of drawing the Israelis into the battle.

It may well be that Iran and its Syrian puppet Assad are trying to drive a wedge into the strengthening relationship between Israel and the Sunni Arab powers like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.  If so, this does not seem to be working.  First, the Israeli counterfire has been aimed squarely at the Assad forces since they launched the fire in the first place.  Second, Isreal's hitting Assad forces or Iranians or Hezbollah is not going to upset the Sunni Arab countries. 

This is a dangerous move by Assad and the Iranians.  Were Israel provoked into a major response, it could deal a crippling blow to the Assad forces.  It is highly doubtful that Russia would step in to protect Assad from such an attack.  Iran does not have the ability to prevent it.

Hopefully, the firing will end after two days.

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