Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a video today which threatens an Iranian attack on the capitals of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as on unspecified targets in Israel. The Revolutionary Guards are a military force that answers only to the Ayatollah Khamenei; they have total control of Iran's ballistic missile force. And lest you think that these threats are meaningless, the Revolutionary Guards launched two international missile strikes in recent years: one on ISIS in Syria and one on a meeting of Kurds in Iraq.
The martial drumbeat from Iran after the recent terrorist attack by Iranian Arab forces has been aimed at convincing the Iranian people that all is fine at home and only foreign agitators are to blame. At first, the Iranians focused on the USA and Israel, but now they have moved on to the Saudis and the Emiratis.
Just imagine the consequences of a ballistic missile attack on the Saudi or Emirati capital. Most likely the Iranians would launch a salvo of missiles, say 15. After all, one could be shot down, and that would be a total embarrassment for Teheran. Fifteen missiles heading for the Saudi capital, however, would be very difficult to stop. If only five got through, and if the guidance system kept the missiles on target, the damage could be immense. Further, a surprise attack on Riyadh would surely catch most of the capital by surprise and could literally kill hundreds or thousands depending on where the missiles strike. That, of course, is a worst case scenario.
Even were the missiles all shot down or were they to fall harmlessly in the desert, the consequences would be severe. There is no way that the Saudis would leave such an attack unpunished. There would surely be a counter strike. The Saudis would call upon the USA for help. The same would be true of the Emiratis although they would be less likely to launch a counter strike.
Let's consider the alternatives. The counter strike could target the missile bases. Those might be difficult to hit particularly if the Iranians have anti-missile defenses. The strike could also target Iran's government or military in general. Economic targets like oil facilities or port installations could also get hit. And rest assured, a Saudi counterstrike would result in another attack by the Iranians. Things would likely quickly get out of control an move on to war.
In a war between the Saudis and the Iranians, the critical interests of the USA would be threatened. US national security depends on maintaining free commerce in the Persian Gulf so that the world's main oil commerce route could stay open. This is more important to our allies than to the USA, but it is major nevertheless. In addition, America could not stand by while Iran attacked one of our leading friends in the Arab world.
My guess is that were the President to seek a declaration of War, Congress would pass one. No doubt Washington would bend over backwards to avoid the war happening, but it easily could come to that. Remember, the US has a major navy presence in the Persian Gulf, and Iran would be poised to attack our ships.
This is a scary scenario. With US involvement, the Iranians would be vanquished rather quickly. It certainly would be one way to end the Iranian nuclear threat. The battle would be costly in lives and treasure, though. It would shake the world economy as oil prices soared through the roof. It would allow unfriendly actors like the Russians and the Chinese to try to push further into the Middle East. In short, it is something to be avoided if at all possible.
Hopefully, this is just another one of those threats from Iran which turn out to be completely bogus. Sometimes, though, these Iranian threats turn out to be real. Let's hope not this time.
The martial drumbeat from Iran after the recent terrorist attack by Iranian Arab forces has been aimed at convincing the Iranian people that all is fine at home and only foreign agitators are to blame. At first, the Iranians focused on the USA and Israel, but now they have moved on to the Saudis and the Emiratis.
Just imagine the consequences of a ballistic missile attack on the Saudi or Emirati capital. Most likely the Iranians would launch a salvo of missiles, say 15. After all, one could be shot down, and that would be a total embarrassment for Teheran. Fifteen missiles heading for the Saudi capital, however, would be very difficult to stop. If only five got through, and if the guidance system kept the missiles on target, the damage could be immense. Further, a surprise attack on Riyadh would surely catch most of the capital by surprise and could literally kill hundreds or thousands depending on where the missiles strike. That, of course, is a worst case scenario.
Even were the missiles all shot down or were they to fall harmlessly in the desert, the consequences would be severe. There is no way that the Saudis would leave such an attack unpunished. There would surely be a counter strike. The Saudis would call upon the USA for help. The same would be true of the Emiratis although they would be less likely to launch a counter strike.
Let's consider the alternatives. The counter strike could target the missile bases. Those might be difficult to hit particularly if the Iranians have anti-missile defenses. The strike could also target Iran's government or military in general. Economic targets like oil facilities or port installations could also get hit. And rest assured, a Saudi counterstrike would result in another attack by the Iranians. Things would likely quickly get out of control an move on to war.
In a war between the Saudis and the Iranians, the critical interests of the USA would be threatened. US national security depends on maintaining free commerce in the Persian Gulf so that the world's main oil commerce route could stay open. This is more important to our allies than to the USA, but it is major nevertheless. In addition, America could not stand by while Iran attacked one of our leading friends in the Arab world.
My guess is that were the President to seek a declaration of War, Congress would pass one. No doubt Washington would bend over backwards to avoid the war happening, but it easily could come to that. Remember, the US has a major navy presence in the Persian Gulf, and Iran would be poised to attack our ships.
This is a scary scenario. With US involvement, the Iranians would be vanquished rather quickly. It certainly would be one way to end the Iranian nuclear threat. The battle would be costly in lives and treasure, though. It would shake the world economy as oil prices soared through the roof. It would allow unfriendly actors like the Russians and the Chinese to try to push further into the Middle East. In short, it is something to be avoided if at all possible.
Hopefully, this is just another one of those threats from Iran which turn out to be completely bogus. Sometimes, though, these Iranian threats turn out to be real. Let's hope not this time.
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