Time magazine has a story in which it reports the surprising success that Republicans are having wooing Latino voters. In Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Texas polling shows that Democrat senate candidates are running between 7 and 20 points behind the percentages obtained by Hillary Clinton from Latinos in those states in 2016. The Time report chalks it all up to better campaign machinery from the GOP since according to Time, President Trump has taken steps to alienate the Latino community. According to Time, the Democrats will have to step up their campaigns to win back these voters.
It's an amazing article, amazingly unrealistic that is. Here's what it leaves out: Latinos are doing better as a group over the last two years than they did during the eight years of Obama. Unemployment of Latinos reached the lowest level ever recorded by the government and it is still trending lower. New businesses started by Latinos reached the highest level ever recorded and that figure is trending higher. In other words, from an economic perspective, Latinos are doing much better than they were under Obama. That's something that people who are living through the difference recognize. It's not going to swing 50% of the vote one way or the other, but the movement of 10% from Democrat to Republican is certainly feasible.
The Democrat response so far has been twofold. First, the Dems deny that the economy is better for Latinos. That will work with some, but not with those who themselves are doing better. Second, the Dems have fallen back on their normal attack which is that Republicans are all white supremacists who hate Latinos. This lie is hard to continue in places like Texas (where the GOP nominee is himself a Cuban-American) or Florida (where the GOP nominee Rick Scott has spent years helping the state's Latino community.)
The reality is that a 10% swing in the Latino vote will kill the chances of the Dems to pick up senate seats in Texas, Arizona and Nevada and will give the GOP a pick up in Florida.
It's an amazing article, amazingly unrealistic that is. Here's what it leaves out: Latinos are doing better as a group over the last two years than they did during the eight years of Obama. Unemployment of Latinos reached the lowest level ever recorded by the government and it is still trending lower. New businesses started by Latinos reached the highest level ever recorded and that figure is trending higher. In other words, from an economic perspective, Latinos are doing much better than they were under Obama. That's something that people who are living through the difference recognize. It's not going to swing 50% of the vote one way or the other, but the movement of 10% from Democrat to Republican is certainly feasible.
The Democrat response so far has been twofold. First, the Dems deny that the economy is better for Latinos. That will work with some, but not with those who themselves are doing better. Second, the Dems have fallen back on their normal attack which is that Republicans are all white supremacists who hate Latinos. This lie is hard to continue in places like Texas (where the GOP nominee is himself a Cuban-American) or Florida (where the GOP nominee Rick Scott has spent years helping the state's Latino community.)
The reality is that a 10% swing in the Latino vote will kill the chances of the Dems to pick up senate seats in Texas, Arizona and Nevada and will give the GOP a pick up in Florida.
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